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The 2019 Draft
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smackeddog
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3/10/2019  7:35 AM
Okay folks, give me your top 5 players in this years draft (because we all know that we'll drop in the lottery,)

Latest consensus seems to be :

1) Zion

(no one close)


2) Barrett
3) Morant

(Big drop off)

4 and beyond: a crap shoot

I need some hope that if we end up with the 4th or 5th we can get a meaningful player

AUTOADVERT
Nalod
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3/10/2019  10:50 AM
Barret and Reddish yesterday’s shot selection was delusional!
Their shooting % is in part to a vacuum of one and done starphuch on Duke that has to cater to these McDonald’s all Americans NBA ambitious first and foremost. I don’t know how close Zion is to returning and if super cautious to protect his draft status. Duke is not very deep beyond its core 4 players.
I’m not a pro scout, but I also know transposing their shooting % to the NBA and a concern over all might be too simple. Trae Young is adapting as have many others to the NBA game.
When I watch Duke they are a collection of talent and not a true team. thats not on Coach K, thats on the dynamic of who his players. He has three in the top 10 draft and likely 4 in top 15 depending where jones goes. Duke does not have the sharp shooters to open up the middle where this teams is trying to pound its opponents. Without Zion its not always pretty.
You don't show a fool a job half done!
TripleThreat
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3/10/2019  11:21 AM
smackeddog wrote:Okay folks, give me your top 5 players in this years draft (because we all know that we'll drop in the lottery,)

Latest consensus seems to be :

1) Zion

(no one close)


2) Barrett
3) Morant

(Big drop off)

4 and beyond: a crap shoot

I need some hope that if we end up with the 4th or 5th we can get a meaningful player


In terms of raw impact, without regard to tiers and market forces and "value for slot"

Zion Williamson
Keldon Johnson
Bol Bol
RJ Barrett
Jaxson Hayes
Ja Morant

How I think it will break down (as of today's timeline as a benchmark)

Tier 1

Zion Williamson

Tier 2

Ja Morant/RJ Barrett
RJ Barrett/Ja Morant


Tier 3
Cam Reddish
Rui Hachimura
DeAndre Hunter ( will push by time of draft)
Nassir Little
Keldon Johnson
Bol Bol


If the Knicks pick 5-7, pick Keldon Johnson. My take on it. If he's off the board, then Bol or Hayes.

Someone who might go undrafted but might be worth a look is Brian Bowen.

"Should have paid Lin and rid ourselves of Melo. Lin makes every team better." - HofstraBBall 11/12/2018
BigDaddyG
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3/10/2019  4:58 PM
TripleThreat wrote:
smackeddog wrote:Okay folks, give me your top 5 players in this years draft (because we all know that we'll drop in the lottery,)

Latest consensus seems to be :

1) Zion

(no one close)


2) Barrett
3) Morant

(Big drop off)

4 and beyond: a crap shoot

I need some hope that if we end up with the 4th or 5th we can get a meaningful player


In terms of raw impact, without regard to tiers and market forces and "value for slot"

Zion Williamson
Keldon Johnson
Bol Bol
RJ Barrett
Jaxson Hayes
Ja Morant

How I think it will break down (as of today's timeline as a benchmark)

Tier 1

Zion Williamson

Tier 2

Ja Morant/RJ Barrett
RJ Barrett/Ja Morant

Tier 3
Cam Reddish
Rui Hachimura
DeAndre Hunter ( will push by time of draft)
Nassir Little
Keldon Johnson
Bol Bol


If the Knicks pick 5-7, pick Keldon Johnson. My take on it. If he's off the board, then Bol or Hayes.

Someone who might go undrafted but might be worth a look is Brian Bowen.

Nassir Little is a wild card. I can see a situation where he strings together a few good games in moves into tier 2. I can see him developing into a Gerald Wallace type. I can also see him dropping. Right now the only thing you can really get excited about is his physical profile. He did the best job defending Zion that I've seen so far. Granted, it wasa highschool all star game. But that spurt gave you a clear indication of his potential. Rui and DeAndre are guys who could blend in anywhere. I'm worried about Rui's defense at the next level, but I like his promise as a scorer at all three levels. Cam's game is weird and I can see him falling further.

Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
smackeddog
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3/11/2019  3:53 AM    LAST EDITED: 3/11/2019  3:59 AM
Problem is the draft after the third spot seems overloaded with Sg's- are any of those options really much better than what we have (dotson, Frank and trier). Meanwhile it seems pretty light at PF, which is the position we seem to need if KD and Kyrie sign. If we land the third spot and take Ja Morant, can he play next to Kyrie? In that scenario we might then also be able to move dsj or Frank for some sort of PF.

I do think we're in trouble if we fall to 4th or 5th (which would be maddening after all this losing) but it is the most likely scenario (both statistically and history wise- we always seem to land the pick after the number of top players)

I still think if we land 1st we draft and keep Zion.

If we land 2 or 3 we try to trade for AD (though double check if Morant or Barrett could be worth keeping)

4th or 5th screws us because aside from there not being a great option for us, it also rules out an AD trade because it wouldn't be an attractive enough pick for new Orleans to want to deal with us.

It's going to be a stressful couple of months until the lottery...

Nalod
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3/11/2019  1:26 PM
Simulator

Ran it 10 times. Remember the first one is the natural alignment of teams via record. So you have to press "Sim" to register it.

Remember 1st three odds of landing no. 1 is the same. Its how far you can drop that matters via the Tank.

10times

3 times came up 5th.
2 times came up 4th
1 time came up 3rd
3 times came up 2nd
1 time came up 1st

I'd suggest fans prepare themselves that 59.9% chance we land 4th or 5th.
Here is the odds. http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds Look at it, learn it. Remember it.


14th, 18th, 23rd. fooking Bostons picks this year. I suspect they use some of that for currency.

You don't show a fool a job half done!
TripleThreat
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3/11/2019  3:55 PM
smackeddog wrote:Problem is the draft after the third spot seems overloaded with Sg's- are any of those options really much better than what we have (dotson, Frank and trier). Meanwhile it seems pretty light at PF, which is the position we seem to need if KD and Kyrie sign. ...

I do think we're in trouble if we fall to 4th or 5th ...

4th or 5th screws us


You approach each situation as it comes and do the best you can given the time and place.

Sam Hinkie wanted Zinger. His ownership overruled him and told him to take Jahlil Okafor. He said Zinger will be something special. They said so will Okafor. If Hinkie got to actually do what he wanted, the Knicks would have probably taken Okafor.

You can't control where you pick ( Unless you buy a franchise for a record price, then you'll be gifted a top overall pick at some point) and you can't control who gets picked in front of you.

Wing has the highest positional value in the entire league. If the Jets had 4 elite cornerbacks, they'd still be drafting cornerback projects in the drafts later rounds. If the Mets had 7 good starting pitchers, they'd still be working hard to mine more SP prospects on all levels. You can never have too much good pitching. You can never have too many good cornerbacks. You can never have too many wings/wing prospects in the NBA.

You can find a serviceable stretch 4 on the open market in the lower tiers of FA. If you want to find a functional wing, it will cost you dearly.

The Knicks just need to take the Best Player Available when they pick. That's it. Need based drafting matters in a situation like the Warriors or the Kobe/Shaq Lakers or a team already in the top 3 team/contention window in the entire league. You pick the guy you believe in and that you feel will be the most productive in the NBA.

Get as much talent as you can in the draft, worry about the rest later. This is a common criticism of Hinkie when he picked Noel, Okafor and Embiid. Too many big men. If he felt they were the best on the board ( sans Okafor who was pushed onto him), then so be it.

If the player has talent, you can find something to do with him or trade him later.

"Should have paid Lin and rid ourselves of Melo. Lin makes every team better." - HofstraBBall 11/12/2018
Nalod
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3/11/2019  4:30 PM
TripleThreat wrote:
smackeddog wrote:Problem is the draft after the third spot seems overloaded with Sg's- are any of those options really much better than what we have (dotson, Frank and trier). Meanwhile it seems pretty light at PF, which is the position we seem to need if KD and Kyrie sign. ...

I do think we're in trouble if we fall to 4th or 5th ...

4th or 5th screws us


You approach each situation as it comes and do the best you can given the time and place.

Sam Hinkie wanted Zinger. His ownership overruled him and told him to take Jahlil Okafor. He said Zinger will be something special. They said so will Okafor. If Hinkie got to actually do what he wanted, the Knicks would have probably taken Okafor.

You can't control where you pick ( Unless you buy a franchise for a record price, then you'll be gifted a top overall pick at some point) and you can't control who gets picked in front of you.

Wing has the highest positional value in the entire league. If the Jets had 4 elite cornerbacks, they'd still be drafting cornerback projects in the drafts later rounds. If the Mets had 7 good starting pitchers, they'd still be working hard to mine more SP prospects on all levels. You can never have too much good pitching. You can never have too many good cornerbacks. You can never have too many wings/wing prospects in the NBA.

You can find a serviceable stretch 4 on the open market in the lower tiers of FA. If you want to find a functional wing, it will cost you dearly.

The Knicks just need to take the Best Player Available when they pick. That's it. Need based drafting matters in a situation like the Warriors or the Kobe/Shaq Lakers or a team already in the top 3 team/contention window in the entire league. You pick the guy you believe in and that you feel will be the most productive in the NBA.

Get as much talent as you can in the draft, worry about the rest later. This is a common criticism of Hinkie when he picked Noel, Okafor and Embiid. Too many big men. If he felt they were the best on the board ( sans Okafor who was pushed onto him), then so be it.

If the player has talent, you can find something to do with him or trade him later.

Good take. "Draft best player". Logical. Too many

You don't show a fool a job half done!
TPercy
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3/13/2019  10:09 AM
Surprised not to see Jarrett Culver on these lists..
The Future is Bright!
technomaster
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3/13/2019  12:48 PM
Here's the most detailed analysis I could find on Culver:

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/02/06/draft-notes-realistic-jarrett-culver/

Some comps: Khris Middleton, Steve Smith, Joe Johnson, Jalen Rose, Jim Jackson... Evan Turner.
Summary: Versatile player. Sophomore. Not an elite athlete (ie not Penny Hardaway, Grant Hill)

The gist is there are lots of draft value questions - much of his upside is based on him 1) improving his perimeter shot (can't predict) OR 2) growing to 6'8"-6'10".

Banking on a player growing a few inches after the draft is not a draft strategy. :) However if he measures in the 6'8" range, it'd certainly boost his stock a bit.

Kevin Dolorico | "That was two, two from the heart." - John Starks
GustavBahler
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3/14/2019  12:13 PM
Zion is back tonight.....hide your Nikes!!!
Cartman718
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3/14/2019  7:41 PM
Nixluva is posting triangle screen grabs, even when nobody asks - Fishmike. LOL So are we going to reference that thread like the bible now? "The thread of Wroten Page 14 post 9" - EnySpree
Nalod
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3/14/2019  9:31 PM
Texas Tech lost, upset, but Culver was impressive the last few minutes of the game.
Delusional college game ending attempt as typical, but the kid is smooth.
You don't show a fool a job half done!
Cartman718
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3/14/2019  11:21 PM
I mean seriously? 13 for 13?
Nixluva is posting triangle screen grabs, even when nobody asks - Fishmike. LOL So are we going to reference that thread like the bible now? "The thread of Wroten Page 14 post 9" - EnySpree
VCoug
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3/15/2019  12:58 AM
Now the joy of my world is in Zion How beautiful if nothing more Than to wait at Zion's door I've never been in love like this before Now let me pray to keep you from The perils that will surely come
smackeddog
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3/15/2019  8:43 AM
Cartman718 wrote:I mean seriously? 13 for 13?

After a few weeks of tankathon, I no longer have hope that we'll land the number 1 pick so it pains me to see how good Zion is

Nalod
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3/15/2019  10:22 AM
keddog wrote:
Cartman718 wrote:I mean seriously? 13 for 13?

After a few weeks of tankathon, I no longer have hope that we'll land the number 1 pick so it pains me to see how good Zion is

Its something we all have to live with. While what we witnessed last nite was super impressive we look at that body and power and thinking "never seen a basketball player look like that".....and thus doubts.
Is possible this draft is a one pony show or others in his shadow pale in comparison but are undervalued hype because of it.
Nalod does not know.
Reddish looks lost when Zion is on the floor. Zion just eats everthing in front of him. He steals the ball, rebounds, and scores.
Losing has its benefits but little is apparent when it happens. Losing sucks. If we had a team of vets and were tuned out, I'd be very concerned.
For sure it would be preferable to NOT lose but with the youth we have its palatable. If our youth was better we'd not lose as much.
Since we tend to extrapolate the present into the future, and media sells anger we get doses of negativity which repeats itself.
Winning cures that. Winning is not the current order. the only thing that validates success is winning. The rest is conjecture.
Nalod is full of conjecture.

You don't show a fool a job half done!
jrodmc
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3/15/2019  1:24 PM
smackeddog wrote:
Cartman718 wrote:I mean seriously? 13 for 13?

After a few weeks of tankathon, I no longer have hope that we'll land the number 1 pick so it pains me to see how good Zion is

There is only now. Our yoots really are not that good, the house, for all intents and purposes, with the exception of a few extraneous parts and our problem child owner, is clean. No real starphuchs, no "face of the franchise" no savior. nothing but upper echelon G-league rookies and sophs. We got picks and cash. This leads to hope, and is a good thing, but that's all there is for the future.

To me, it feels strangely alot like 1985. But it just as well may not be.
If we get Zion, good. Can't live life hoping to win the lottery. 268 million people will be whining along with you, what's the point.

Play the games. Watch, if you can stand it. If you can't stand it, go outside and play some ball. I'm 56. It's never too late.

Hope is a good thing. And nothing good ever dies, but it just may not make the playoffs.
Nalod
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3/15/2019  4:23 PM
jrodmc wrote:
smackeddog wrote:
Cartman718 wrote:I mean seriously? 13 for 13?

After a few weeks of tankathon, I no longer have hope that we'll land the number 1 pick so it pains me to see how good Zion is

There is only now. Our yoots really are not that good, the house, for all intents and purposes, with the exception of a few extraneous parts and our problem child owner, is clean. No real starphuchs, no "face of the franchise" no savior. nothing but upper echelon G-league rookies and sophs. We got picks and cash. This leads to hope, and is a good thing, but that's all there is for the future.

To me, it feels strangely alot like 1985. But it just as well may not be.
If we get Zion, good. Can't live life hoping to win the lottery. 268 million people will be whining along with you, what's the point.

Play the games. Watch, if you can stand it. If you can't stand it, go outside and play some ball. I'm 56. It's never too late.

We starphuch free and its stripped down to the studs.
We finally hit rock bottom.
Maybe.......

You don't show a fool a job half done!
Cartman718
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3/15/2019  5:52 PM
1985 was 34 years ago. We are due #1
Nixluva is posting triangle screen grabs, even when nobody asks - Fishmike. LOL So are we going to reference that thread like the bible now? "The thread of Wroten Page 14 post 9" - EnySpree
The 2019 Draft

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