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The 2019 Draft
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Nalod
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11/28/2018  11:21 AM
I hope Martin sees fit to have this a sticky thread so we have one place to discuss the potential of Knicks continues process. Regardless of a tank, lets clarify the odds.

The way is used to be and Tankalicious:

Since 2005, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams enter in the draft lottery. These 14 teams were ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and assigned the following number of chances, up to 2018:

1.250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
2.199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3.156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4.119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5.88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6.63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7.43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8.28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9.17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10.11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11.8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12.7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13.6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14.5 combinations, 0.5% chance

The way it is now:

Beginning with the 2019 draft, the NBA will change the lottery odds as follows:

1.140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
2.140 combinations, 14.0% chance
3.140 combinations, 14.0% chance
4.125 combinations, 12.5% chance
5.105 combinations, 10.5% chance
6.90 combinations, 9.0% chance
7.75 combinations, 7.5% chance
8.60 combinations, 6.0% chance
9.45 combinations, 4.5% chance
10.30 combinations, 3.0% chance
11.20 combinations, 2.0% chance
12.15 combinations, 1.5% chance
13.10 combinations, 1.0% chance
14.5 combinations, 0.5% chance


The odds obviously are very different and tanking is not as attractive. Really, I don't see any team in the NBA on full tank mode. Suns are playing with Rookies. Nets would be most obvious but they too are balancing some form of building a core and culture. The Philly style tank is obsolete.

A super fun site is "Tankathon". It takes the current team standings and applies the odds with the current mock draft. They don't specify who is making the Mock.

Link: http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

Hit the "Sim" button and it runs it again as many times as you like. Knicks currently sit at the 5 today (Nov 28th)
It changes daily.

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BigRedDog
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11/28/2018  11:29 AM
People don't realize but this new format actually helps us. We are not going to be the worst team in the league.Probably not even in top 3. So if we finish from 4-6th our odds improve from 6-11% to 9-12.5%.
Briggs-- Frank is 2 yrs away from being 2 years away
Nalod
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11/28/2018  12:11 PM
BigRedDog wrote:People don't realize but this new format actually helps us. We are not going to be the worst team in the league.Probably not even in top 3. So if we finish from 4-6th our odds improve from 6-11% to 9-12.5%.

True. Doe we draft by position/need? or best player available??

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SupremeCommander
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11/29/2018  8:59 AM
The 2018-19 Knicks: where we make draft plans in November
Cartman718 said: Is Fiz going to write Zion on the board during the timeout
martin
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11/29/2018  10:47 AM
SupremeCommander wrote:The 2018-19 Knicks: where we make draft plans in November

Strong Tank/development mode, I like it

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Marv
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11/29/2018  10:55 AM
Nalod wrote:
BigRedDog wrote:People don't realize but this new format actually helps us. We are not going to be the worst team in the league.Probably not even in top 3. So if we finish from 4-6th our odds improve from 6-11% to 9-12.5%.

True. Doe we draft by position/need? or best player available??


best player available. who happens to be 6'7" 285 with 40+ vert.
“This board has become a repository for mentally unstable attention seekers. Or gimmick posters.” - sebstar
martin
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11/29/2018  11:07 AM
Marv wrote:
Nalod wrote:
BigRedDog wrote:People don't realize but this new format actually helps us. We are not going to be the worst team in the league.Probably not even in top 3. So if we finish from 4-6th our odds improve from 6-11% to 9-12.5%.

True. Doe we draft by position/need? or best player available??


best player available. who happens to be 6'7" 285 with 40+ vert.

I always knew you liked them big, more to love

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Marv
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11/29/2018  11:10 AM
martin wrote:
Marv wrote:
Nalod wrote:
BigRedDog wrote:People don't realize but this new format actually helps us. We are not going to be the worst team in the league.Probably not even in top 3. So if we finish from 4-6th our odds improve from 6-11% to 9-12.5%.

True. Doe we draft by position/need? or best player available??


best player available. who happens to be 6'7" 285 with 40+ vert.

I always knew you liked them big, more to love

i ain't gonna lie. i loved me some sweetney and jerome. not curry tho - he was fish's type.

“This board has become a repository for mentally unstable attention seekers. Or gimmick posters.” - sebstar
martin
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11/29/2018  11:37 AM
Marv wrote:
martin wrote:
Marv wrote:
Nalod wrote:
BigRedDog wrote:People don't realize but this new format actually helps us. We are not going to be the worst team in the league.Probably not even in top 3. So if we finish from 4-6th our odds improve from 6-11% to 9-12.5%.

True. Doe we draft by position/need? or best player available??


best player available. who happens to be 6'7" 285 with 40+ vert.

I always knew you liked them big, more to love

i ain't gonna lie. i loved me some sweetney and jerome. not curry tho - he was fish's type.

Always a classic!! This video always gets my juices flowing!

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Marv
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11/29/2018  11:42 AM
martin wrote:
Marv wrote:
martin wrote:
Marv wrote:
Nalod wrote:
BigRedDog wrote:People don't realize but this new format actually helps us. We are not going to be the worst team in the league.Probably not even in top 3. So if we finish from 4-6th our odds improve from 6-11% to 9-12.5%.

True. Doe we draft by position/need? or best player available??


best player available. who happens to be 6'7" 285 with 40+ vert.

I always knew you liked them big, more to love

i ain't gonna lie. i loved me some sweetney and jerome. not curry tho - he was fish's type.

Always a classic!! This video always gets my juices flowing!

what a task - narrowing his highlights down to 2-and-a-half minutes.

“This board has become a repository for mentally unstable attention seekers. Or gimmick posters.” - sebstar
martin
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11/29/2018  11:48 AM
Marv wrote:
martin wrote:
Marv wrote:
martin wrote:
Marv wrote:
Nalod wrote:
BigRedDog wrote:People don't realize but this new format actually helps us. We are not going to be the worst team in the league.Probably not even in top 3. So if we finish from 4-6th our odds improve from 6-11% to 9-12.5%.

True. Doe we draft by position/need? or best player available??


best player available. who happens to be 6'7" 285 with 40+ vert.

I always knew you liked them big, more to love

i ain't gonna lie. i loved me some sweetney and jerome. not curry tho - he was fish's type.

Always a classic!! This video always gets my juices flowing!

what a task - narrowing his highlights down to 2-and-a-half minutes.

COOKIES!!

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Nalod
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11/29/2018  12:37 PM
When dinosaurs roamed the NBA!!!!
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smackeddog
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11/29/2018  3:46 PM
Every time I do the tankathon sim we fall 3 to 4 spots


http://www.tankathon.com

TripleThreat
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11/29/2018  5:05 PM
Nalod wrote:Beginning with the 2019 draft, the NBA will change the lottery odds as follows:
1.140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
2.140 combinations, 14.0% chance
3.140 combinations, 14.0% chance
4.125 combinations, 12.5% chance


Changes the way the perception operates, not the rigged outcome.

There are those who believe the NBA draft lottery is rigged, there are those who do not. If you don't, then you don't. Everyone has an opinion.

It's rigged. If you buy an NBA franchise for a record price or you lose a critical free agent via a brand's interference, the league will reset you with the top pick or a potential franchise player.

The NBA league administration want tri-head owners Edens, Lasry and Dinan out. They also want Greek Freak ( along with Nike) in a larger market. If that all unfolds, the Bucks will get the top pick in a future draft. Ballmer paid top dollar for the Clippers. When the Clips get another chance at the high end of lottery and a franchise player, luck will fall in their favor.

It's not rigged every year, but it's rigged some years where it's critical to get a franchise rebooted or make bidding on the rare for sale teams to skyrocket. If people see Ballmer building a new dynasty, it will justify the purchase price paid for the team.

Knicks will not get the top pick in the draft unless Dolan sells for a record price. From a marketing angle, if the league ever wants to push a NY/NJ rivalry or build upon one, then they might give the Knicks the third pick on some occasion.

What the league doesn't want anymore is some team having a 2 percent chance to win the lottery to win it and then make it more open that it's completely rigged in many years. Rose to Chicago is an example of this. It was just horse ****ery in terms of open rigging that insulted people's intelligence.

This is the point where someone points out a Big Four firm runs the lottery selection to ensure integrity. The firm in question is known for laundering money for drug dealers and terrorists. Also it used to be the Big Five, until more horse ****ery wiped a big player out of the market. Integrity my ass.

When you have billions on the line, you don't leave it to chance.

If there's no true headliner ( like the Joe Smith draft) then the league administration might leave it all alone for one year. But that rarely happens.

"Should have paid Lin and rid ourselves of Melo. Lin makes every team better." - HofstraBBall 11/12/2018
smackeddog
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11/30/2018  4:32 AM    LAST EDITED: 11/30/2018  4:36 AM
TripleThreat wrote:
Nalod wrote:Beginning with the 2019 draft, the NBA will change the lottery odds as follows:
1.140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
2.140 combinations, 14.0% chance
3.140 combinations, 14.0% chance
4.125 combinations, 12.5% chance


Changes the way the perception operates, not the rigged outcome.

There are those who believe the NBA draft lottery is rigged, there are those who do not. If you don't, then you don't. Everyone has an opinion.

It's rigged. If you buy an NBA franchise for a record price or you lose a critical free agent via a brand's interference, the league will reset you with the top pick or a potential franchise player.

The NBA league administration want tri-head owners Edens, Lasry and Dinan out. They also want Greek Freak ( along with Nike) in a larger market. If that all unfolds, the Bucks will get the top pick in a future draft. Ballmer paid top dollar for the Clippers. When the Clips get another chance at the high end of lottery and a franchise player, luck will fall in their favor.

It's not rigged every year, but it's rigged some years where it's critical to get a franchise rebooted or make bidding on the rare for sale teams to skyrocket. If people see Ballmer building a new dynasty, it will justify the purchase price paid for the team.

Knicks will not get the top pick in the draft unless Dolan sells for a record price. From a marketing angle, if the league ever wants to push a NY/NJ rivalry or build upon one, then they might give the Knicks the third pick on some occasion.

What the league doesn't want anymore is some team having a 2 percent chance to win the lottery to win it and then make it more open that it's completely rigged in many years. Rose to Chicago is an example of this. It was just horse ****ery in terms of open rigging that insulted people's intelligence.

This is the point where someone points out a Big Four firm runs the lottery selection to ensure integrity. The firm in question is known for laundering money for drug dealers and terrorists. Also it used to be the Big Five, until more horse ****ery wiped a big player out of the market. Integrity my ass.

When you have billions on the line, you don't leave it to chance.

If there's no true headliner ( like the Joe Smith draft) then the league administration might leave it all alone for one year. But that rarely happens.

You're starting to sound like Playa2...

Where is the proof of your theory? How would you know if you were wrong?

Jmpasq
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11/30/2018  6:23 AM
Nalod wrote:
BigRedDog wrote:People don't realize but this new format actually helps us. We are not going to be the worst team in the league.Probably not even in top 3. So if we finish from 4-6th our odds improve from 6-11% to 9-12.5%.

True. Doe we draft by position/need? or best player available??

Half the roster is terrible so best player avaialable.

Check out My NFL Draft Prospect Videos at Youtube User Pages Jmpasq,JPdraftjedi,Jmpasqdraftjedi. www.Draftbreakdown.com
TripleThreat
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11/30/2018  5:07 PM
Nalod wrote:
BigRedDog wrote:People don't realize but this new format actually helps us. We are not going to be the worst team in the league.Probably not even in top 3. So if we finish from 4-6th our odds improve from 6-11% to 9-12.5%.

True. Doe we draft by position/need? or best player available??


IIRC, Chuck Daly was asked this once. He said you take BPA until you run into a situation where you find two players you like equally, then you take positional value against those two players. Then health, then long term upside, then lastly, character.

In Daly's era, pivots were very scarce and rim protection was very expensive. In his timeline, you'd pick a rim protector. In modern times, you take a wing.

It's sort of a sad statement to make, but if you eliminated every **** bird from your team, you'd never be able to field a full team.

Finding two guys you like equally as such happens pretty rarely. Thus taking BPA is the best course in the NBA. With deeper drafts like the NFL and MLB, you can build around different strategies. In the NBA, there are absolutely zero market inefficiencies, you can't long range plan anything.

You work hard and you try to make your own luck, but in the NBA, CIRCUMSTANCE is something no one can control and often it shapes teams destinies for the long term.

"Should have paid Lin and rid ourselves of Melo. Lin makes every team better." - HofstraBBall 11/12/2018
jrodmc
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12/1/2018  10:06 AM
So boys and girls, IT'S RIGGED, but CIRCUMSTANCE IS SOMETHING NO ONE CAN CONTROL.

Welcome to the TripleThreat pointlessly disconnected original cliche festival...

Hope is a good thing. And nothing good ever dies, but it just may not make the playoffs.
BigRedDog
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12/1/2018  3:20 PM
jrodmc wrote:So boys and girls, IT'S RIGGED, but CIRCUMSTANCE IS SOMETHING NO ONE CAN CONTROL.

Welcome to the TripleThreat pointlessly disconnected original cliche festival...

TripleThreat just spews bull**** when he writes anything with a condescending attitude . Lebron/Nike, run the NBA, NBA draft is rigged, etc. These conspiracy theories are ridiculous. Way too many people would have to be involved and someone would talk. Triple hanging with playa way too often. Notice how triple never responds when people question him?
#NFLfrontofficewannabebull****terknowitall

Briggs-- Frank is 2 yrs away from being 2 years away
Gudris
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12/2/2018  10:32 AM
Why it is not real lottery with envelopes? Every team manager goes and picks up one envelope, no stupid balls etc
The 2019 Draft

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