*Edited for accuracy
Was thinkin bit about this today.
Knicks may have f'd up with the way they structured the signing. Maybe not.
So, Hezonja is a guy that, for any lifelong baller, you know intrinsically the guy has game. He's a legit talent. This is not a guy you want to just "audition" for another team's benefit essentially. The point of signing him is to presumably keep him long-term assuming he breaks out a bit.
He can play the 2, 3, and 4. Still young. Athletic. Can shoot. Can pass. Again, this is a guy built for the modern game with great size.
I'm working under the assumption the front office mandatory plan is to get a max FA next summer at all costs.
So, someone can double check this, but basically if we're stretching Noah, we're going to need to trade Baker for an expiring to ensure that we reach that $33 Million number. Lee is not movable at this point. You could attach 2 second round picks to him, but that would be wasteful of assets, and not actually necessary. Plus, we've seen now the inherent value of a 2nd round pick with the emergence of Robinson. Hardaway is only movable with a 1st, therefore scratch that. Baker is set to make only $5.7 Million in his final year going into next summer, which should be easy enough to shed if we attach only 1 middling second rounder. Baker's still young, cost-controlled, and plays defense. I could see a team like Philly taking a shot on him.
So, weirdly enough, if the Knicks took back no salary in a dump for Baker, waived and stretched Noah, renounced all cap holds minus KP and the mandatory minimum salary slots, and selected no higher than 5th in the 2019 draft...
they'd be right on target.
But here's the issue: I wanna keep Hezonja. I don't know what YOU think, but it's little transactional things like this that make a difference down the line. And I know I'm right about this one.
Remember Ricky Mahorn? Pistons, fresh off a championship, sacrificed him in the expansion draft and went on to self-combust. Mahorn wasn't an All-Star, but he was an important role player. It's like Jenga, once you start removing pieces, **** can start to tumble down. Robert Horry was never an All-Star either, but I can't imagine all those teams are guaranteed a chip without him if we're playing revisionist history.
Hezonja can be an important piece for the future.
So, how did the Knicks potentially F up?
They didn't pay him ENOUGH.
Now, if the above laid out plan stays true, and that's the course we maintain, the following won't matter because we'll be forced to renounce his cap hold and will only be able to offer the full Mid Level, which starts at around $9 million (not a bad raise). But if we DON'T land a max free agent and strike out, we'll have wished we paid Hezonja more than $6.5 because currently we only have his non-Bird rights, which means even WITH his cap hold in place we can only pay 120% (or $7.8 Million) of his previous salary or the league average ($9 Million), whichever is higher. You do the math.
This means the highest we can pay him is the mid-level IRREGARDLESS of our cap situation this summer. And thus this was a STUPID blunder. Every team in the league can offer him that.
Had we used the BAE for Robinson, and spent, say $7.5 or even the full 8.8 Million this year on Mario, we could hypothetically offer him MORE than the projected Mid-Level. That's an important distinction since it would mean we could beat out ALL OTHER capped out teams in the league to resign him. Sure, we'd get crucified in the media for "overpaying", but that's short-lived. And sure, a team under the cap could still overpay for him, but that's a small risk in the grand scheme. Actually, now that I'm on the subject, if it were me I'd actively avoid that pitfall by enforcing a minutes restriction on him this upcoming season. Basically I'd artificially decrease his value.
In any event, Knicks really should have paid Mario a higher salary this year to remove competition for his services next summer. Just as a backup precaution. Again, if he even reaches 80% of his potential we're talking a JR Smith 2.0 6th Man of the Year type player.
HOWEVER
My feeling is we'll follow the above laid-out plan. We'll grab Kyrie, then resign KP with his Bird-rights, then resign Hezonja as N UFA on a 2 + 1, FULL Mid-level deal ($9 Million in 1st year), and fill out the roster with mostly minimum contracts, a BAE, and draft picks.
If his agent agreed to that (possible) we'd secure his Early Bird rights, giving us the ability to pay him 175% above his previous salary starting in year 4, which could top out at over $16 Million annually...
At the end of the day, it's all about keeping options open. And the Hezonja signing is proof that the devil is in the details. So by saving money on Mario in the short-term, thus making the signing appear to be a "steal," Perry may have ironically hampered our flexibility in the long run. Let's see what happens.
So, that was a long read. Hope the write-up is appreciated, though, as it should be.