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NY Knicks: Confirmed, KP Torn Left ACL
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knicks1248
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2/6/2018  11:58 PM
Welpee wrote:Didn't the Bucks also end Ewing's season back in the day.

broke his wrist

ES
AUTOADVERT
reub
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2/6/2018  11:58 PM
fwk00 wrote:
GoNyGoNyGo wrote:It finally got to him. Playing like a 3 in 5 frame.

Hopefully he puts on muscle and builds a base and develops a post game. That is what is needed.

Man - it just sucks to be a Knicks fan!!! is it the curse of trading Ewing and Clyde?

The curse of trading for Melo.

I don't mind blaming Melo for this either but how will we be able to explain it to the general public?

nixluva
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2/6/2018  11:59 PM
fwk00
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2/7/2018  12:05 AM
reub wrote:
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:I hope that this injury will prevent Perry from trading a #1 pick in any trade for Payton. What would be the point of sacrificing our future when our present is at it's bleakest?

Hang on, reub. Let's take a look at what the consequences are.

Our center story changes considerably.

Kanter's value was tightly couple to complementing KP. With this season and next over for KP, resigning Kanter is less desirable and becomes very tradable.

KOQ becomes the more desirable keeper being more inexpensive. If Perry can successfully trade for Payton and Biyombo, the Knicks could actually be much better served.

Willie should be traded for a different asset. May as well keep Noah.

The second set of consequences is that KP's injury should earn the Knicks an injured player exception that can be filled by any combination of G-League, NBA dispora, or released player. Along those lines Hicks and Kormet should be activated.

An unintended consequence is that the Knicks will be more athletic by attrition.

It also means that there's zero reason to criticize the coaching - we aren't competing this year.


I see what you're saying and thanks for the pick-me-up. I have no problem going after Payton as an undervalued acquisition with youth and upside. I'd even trade Willy for him because its such a historic position of need for us. But not our #1 pick. I'd trade Willy plus filler for Payton and call it a day. I don't care about Noah's contract. Just spend some of Dolan's money and buy him out if we have to.

I also agree that Hicks should get the call. Or sign Nigel Hayes. But please, no additional minutes for Beasley or Lance! That would just take this from bad to worse.

A strange turnabout of events is happening before this trade deadline. Both Thomas and Beasley are in demand. It appears the contending teams are starving for SF reinforcement that's reasonably priced.

Personally I would keep Beasley but if an overwhelming offer were in hand....

Payton was one of my cherished picks in that draft. With Boston taking Smart off the table, I really like the of acquiring both Biyombo AND Payton AND, if there's a snowball's chance in hell, Iwundu. If it took the #1 pick, I think the value is there assuming they take on Noah's contract.

And with KP down, any chance of getting Rubio is also a smart move - he'd keep it interesting - I've always thought he was a perfect fit for MSG.

Welpee
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2/7/2018  12:07 AM
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:I hope that this injury will prevent Perry from trading a #1 pick in any trade for Payton. What would be the point of sacrificing our future when our present is at it's bleakest?

Hang on, reub. Let's take a look at what the consequences are.

Our center story changes considerably.

Kanter's value was tightly couple to complementing KP. With this season and next over for KP, resigning Kanter is less desirable and becomes very tradable.

KOQ becomes the more desirable keeper being more inexpensive. If Perry can successfully trade for Payton and Biyombo, the Knicks could actually be much better served.

Willie should be traded for a different asset. May as well keep Noah.

The second set of consequences is that KP's injury should earn the Knicks an injured player exception that can be filled by any combination of G-League, NBA dispora, or released player. Along those lines Hicks and Kormet should be activated.

An unintended consequence is that the Knicks will be more athletic by attrition.

It also means that there's zero reason to criticize the coaching - we aren't competing this year.


I see what you're saying and thanks for the pick-me-up. I have no problem going after Payton as an undervalued acquisition with youth and upside. I'd even trade Willy for him because its such a historic position of need for us. But not our #1 pick. I'd trade Willy plus filler for Payton and call it a day. I don't care about Noah's contract. Just spend some of Dolan's money and buy him out if we have to.

I also agree that Hicks should get the call. Or sign Nigel Hayes. But please, no additional minutes for Beasley or Lance! That would just take this from bad to worse.

A strange turnabout of events is happening before this trade deadline. Both Thomas and Beasley are in demand. It appears the contending teams are starving for SF reinforcement that's reasonably priced.

Personally I would keep Beasley but if an overwhelming offer were in hand....

Payton was one of my cherished picks in that draft. With Boston taking Smart off the table, I really like the of acquiring both Biyombo AND Payton AND, if there's a snowball's chance in hell, Iwundu. If it took the #1 pick, I think the value is there assuming they take on Noah's contract.

And with KP down, any chance of getting Rubio is also a smart move - he'd keep it interesting - I've always thought he was a perfect fit for MSG.

Are they talking Willy for Payton? I don't see Orlando really wanting anybody else we have.
fwk00
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2/7/2018  12:08 AM
reub wrote:
fwk00 wrote:
GoNyGoNyGo wrote:It finally got to him. Playing like a 3 in 5 frame.

Hopefully he puts on muscle and builds a base and develops a post game. That is what is needed.

Man - it just sucks to be a Knicks fan!!! is it the curse of trading Ewing and Clyde?

The curse of trading for Melo.

I don't mind blaming Melo for this either but how will we be able to explain it to the general public?

Knicksanity

reub
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2/7/2018  12:08 AM
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:I hope that this injury will prevent Perry from trading a #1 pick in any trade for Payton. What would be the point of sacrificing our future when our present is at it's bleakest?

Hang on, reub. Let's take a look at what the consequences are.

Our center story changes considerably.

Kanter's value was tightly couple to complementing KP. With this season and next over for KP, resigning Kanter is less desirable and becomes very tradable.

KOQ becomes the more desirable keeper being more inexpensive. If Perry can successfully trade for Payton and Biyombo, the Knicks could actually be much better served.

Willie should be traded for a different asset. May as well keep Noah.

The second set of consequences is that KP's injury should earn the Knicks an injured player exception that can be filled by any combination of G-League, NBA dispora, or released player. Along those lines Hicks and Kormet should be activated.

An unintended consequence is that the Knicks will be more athletic by attrition.

It also means that there's zero reason to criticize the coaching - we aren't competing this year.


I see what you're saying and thanks for the pick-me-up. I have no problem going after Payton as an undervalued acquisition with youth and upside. I'd even trade Willy for him because its such a historic position of need for us. But not our #1 pick. I'd trade Willy plus filler for Payton and call it a day. I don't care about Noah's contract. Just spend some of Dolan's money and buy him out if we have to.

I also agree that Hicks should get the call. Or sign Nigel Hayes. But please, no additional minutes for Beasley or Lance! That would just take this from bad to worse.

A strange turnabout of events is happening before this trade deadline. Both Thomas and Beasley are in demand. It appears the contending teams are starving for SF reinforcement that's reasonably priced.

Personally I would keep Beasley but if an overwhelming offer were in hand....

Payton was one of my cherished picks in that draft. With Boston taking Smart off the table, I really like the of acquiring both Biyombo AND Payton AND, if there's a snowball's chance in hell, Iwundu. If it took the #1 pick, I think the value is there assuming they take on Noah's contract.

And with KP down, any chance of getting Rubio is also a smart move - he'd keep it interesting - I've always thought he was a perfect fit for MSG.


Kanter/O'Quinn/Biyombo
Beasley/Hicks
Hardaway/Dotson/Lance
Payton/Frank/Burke
Lee

Would that be enough to get me to watch games? Sure it is.
But not by trading another #1 pick. It's already haunted us for an eternity.

reub
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2/7/2018  12:10 AM
Welpee wrote:
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:I hope that this injury will prevent Perry from trading a #1 pick in any trade for Payton. What would be the point of sacrificing our future when our present is at it's bleakest?

Hang on, reub. Let's take a look at what the consequences are.

Our center story changes considerably.

Kanter's value was tightly couple to complementing KP. With this season and next over for KP, resigning Kanter is less desirable and becomes very tradable.

KOQ becomes the more desirable keeper being more inexpensive. If Perry can successfully trade for Payton and Biyombo, the Knicks could actually be much better served.

Willie should be traded for a different asset. May as well keep Noah.

The second set of consequences is that KP's injury should earn the Knicks an injured player exception that can be filled by any combination of G-League, NBA dispora, or released player. Along those lines Hicks and Kormet should be activated.

An unintended consequence is that the Knicks will be more athletic by attrition.

It also means that there's zero reason to criticize the coaching - we aren't competing this year.


I see what you're saying and thanks for the pick-me-up. I have no problem going after Payton as an undervalued acquisition with youth and upside. I'd even trade Willy for him because its such a historic position of need for us. But not our #1 pick. I'd trade Willy plus filler for Payton and call it a day. I don't care about Noah's contract. Just spend some of Dolan's money and buy him out if we have to.

I also agree that Hicks should get the call. Or sign Nigel Hayes. But please, no additional minutes for Beasley or Lance! That would just take this from bad to worse.

A strange turnabout of events is happening before this trade deadline. Both Thomas and Beasley are in demand. It appears the contending teams are starving for SF reinforcement that's reasonably priced.

Personally I would keep Beasley but if an overwhelming offer were in hand....

Payton was one of my cherished picks in that draft. With Boston taking Smart off the table, I really like the of acquiring both Biyombo AND Payton AND, if there's a snowball's chance in hell, Iwundu. If it took the #1 pick, I think the value is there assuming they take on Noah's contract.

And with KP down, any chance of getting Rubio is also a smart move - he'd keep it interesting - I've always thought he was a perfect fit for MSG.

Are they talking Willy for Payton? I don't see Orlando really wanting anybody else we have.

Berman has written about it, but with us giving up Noah and receiving Biyombo. We'd also have to add our #1 pick to the deal, according to rumors.

BRIGGS
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2/7/2018  12:12 AM
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:I hope that this injury will prevent Perry from trading a #1 pick in any trade for Payton. What would be the point of sacrificing our future when our present is at it's bleakest?

Hang on, reub. Let's take a look at what the consequences are.

Our center story changes considerably.

Kanter's value was tightly couple to complementing KP. With this season and next over for KP, resigning Kanter is less desirable and becomes very tradable.

KOQ becomes the more desirable keeper being more inexpensive. If Perry can successfully trade for Payton and Biyombo, the Knicks could actually be much better served.

Willie should be traded for a different asset. May as well keep Noah.

The second set of consequences is that KP's injury should earn the Knicks an injured player exception that can be filled by any combination of G-League, NBA dispora, or released player. Along those lines Hicks and Kormet should be activated.

An unintended consequence is that the Knicks will be more athletic by attrition.

It also means that there's zero reason to criticize the coaching - we aren't competing this year.


I see what you're saying and thanks for the pick-me-up. I have no problem going after Payton as an undervalued acquisition with youth and upside. I'd even trade Willy for him because its such a historic position of need for us. But not our #1 pick. I'd trade Willy plus filler for Payton and call it a day. I don't care about Noah's contract. Just spend some of Dolan's money and buy him out if we have to.

I also agree that Hicks should get the call. Or sign Nigel Hayes. But please, no additional minutes for Beasley or Lance! That would just take this from bad to worse.

A strange turnabout of events is happening before this trade deadline. Both Thomas and Beasley are in demand. It appears the contending teams are starving for SF reinforcement that's reasonably priced.

Personally I would keep Beasley but if an overwhelming offer were in hand....

Payton was one of my cherished picks in that draft. With Boston taking Smart off the table, I really like the of acquiring both Biyombo AND Payton AND, if there's a snowball's chance in hell, Iwundu. If it took the #1 pick, I think the value is there assuming they take on Noah's contract.

And with KP down, any chance of getting Rubio is also a smart move - he'd keep it interesting - I've always thought he was a perfect fit for MSG.

So you want to give up our draft pick after kp went down for a pg who has lead his team to 20 wins per year and can't shoot from long range?

I'll give you a better route-- dump everything that we can and try like heck to get a top 3 pick.

fwk00
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2/7/2018  12:12 AM
Welpee wrote:
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:I hope that this injury will prevent Perry from trading a #1 pick in any trade for Payton. What would be the point of sacrificing our future when our present is at it's bleakest?

Hang on, reub. Let's take a look at what the consequences are.

Our center story changes considerably.

Kanter's value was tightly couple to complementing KP. With this season and next over for KP, resigning Kanter is less desirable and becomes very tradable.

KOQ becomes the more desirable keeper being more inexpensive. If Perry can successfully trade for Payton and Biyombo, the Knicks could actually be much better served.

Willie should be traded for a different asset. May as well keep Noah.

The second set of consequences is that KP's injury should earn the Knicks an injured player exception that can be filled by any combination of G-League, NBA dispora, or released player. Along those lines Hicks and Kormet should be activated.

An unintended consequence is that the Knicks will be more athletic by attrition.

It also means that there's zero reason to criticize the coaching - we aren't competing this year.


I see what you're saying and thanks for the pick-me-up. I have no problem going after Payton as an undervalued acquisition with youth and upside. I'd even trade Willy for him because its such a historic position of need for us. But not our #1 pick. I'd trade Willy plus filler for Payton and call it a day. I don't care about Noah's contract. Just spend some of Dolan's money and buy him out if we have to.

I also agree that Hicks should get the call. Or sign Nigel Hayes. But please, no additional minutes for Beasley or Lance! That would just take this from bad to worse.

A strange turnabout of events is happening before this trade deadline. Both Thomas and Beasley are in demand. It appears the contending teams are starving for SF reinforcement that's reasonably priced.

Personally I would keep Beasley but if an overwhelming offer were in hand....

Payton was one of my cherished picks in that draft. With Boston taking Smart off the table, I really like the of acquiring both Biyombo AND Payton AND, if there's a snowball's chance in hell, Iwundu. If it took the #1 pick, I think the value is there assuming they take on Noah's contract.

And with KP down, any chance of getting Rubio is also a smart move - he'd keep it interesting - I've always thought he was a perfect fit for MSG.

Are they talking Willy for Payton? I don't see Orlando really wanting anybody else we have.

The NY Post article confuses me because it claims Orlando has no interest in Willie. Not sure Noah and the #1 get us Payton and Biyombo but it would be nice to make something along those lines happen.

Don't want to lose Frankie. Payton ain't worth that.

nixluva
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2/7/2018  12:15 AM
I don't see the Knicks trading their #1 pick. Seems like too much IMO.
reub
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2/7/2018  12:18 AM    LAST EDITED: 2/7/2018  12:18 AM
nixluva wrote:I don't see the Knicks trading their #1 pick. Seems like too much IMO.

Payton is leaving Orlando after the season anyway (or they'll have to pay him) so Orlando might just agree to take Willy even up for him. I like that kind of a trade better than giving up our #1.
BRIGGS
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2/7/2018  12:19 AM
nixluva wrote:I don't see the Knicks trading their #1 pick. Seems like too much IMO.

Were stuck without kp for nearly all of 2019. You don't give up an alpha asset for a mediocre nba player

fwk00
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2/7/2018  12:27 AM
reub wrote:
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:
fwk00 wrote:
reub wrote:I hope that this injury will prevent Perry from trading a #1 pick in any trade for Payton. What would be the point of sacrificing our future when our present is at it's bleakest?

Hang on, reub. Let's take a look at what the consequences are.

Our center story changes considerably.

Kanter's value was tightly couple to complementing KP. With this season and next over for KP, resigning Kanter is less desirable and becomes very tradable.

KOQ becomes the more desirable keeper being more inexpensive. If Perry can successfully trade for Payton and Biyombo, the Knicks could actually be much better served.

Willie should be traded for a different asset. May as well keep Noah.

The second set of consequences is that KP's injury should earn the Knicks an injured player exception that can be filled by any combination of G-League, NBA dispora, or released player. Along those lines Hicks and Kormet should be activated.

An unintended consequence is that the Knicks will be more athletic by attrition.

It also means that there's zero reason to criticize the coaching - we aren't competing this year.


I see what you're saying and thanks for the pick-me-up. I have no problem going after Payton as an undervalued acquisition with youth and upside. I'd even trade Willy for him because its such a historic position of need for us. But not our #1 pick. I'd trade Willy plus filler for Payton and call it a day. I don't care about Noah's contract. Just spend some of Dolan's money and buy him out if we have to.

I also agree that Hicks should get the call. Or sign Nigel Hayes. But please, no additional minutes for Beasley or Lance! That would just take this from bad to worse.

A strange turnabout of events is happening before this trade deadline. Both Thomas and Beasley are in demand. It appears the contending teams are starving for SF reinforcement that's reasonably priced.

Personally I would keep Beasley but if an overwhelming offer were in hand....

Payton was one of my cherished picks in that draft. With Boston taking Smart off the table, I really like the of acquiring both Biyombo AND Payton AND, if there's a snowball's chance in hell, Iwundu. If it took the #1 pick, I think the value is there assuming they take on Noah's contract.

And with KP down, any chance of getting Rubio is also a smart move - he'd keep it interesting - I've always thought he was a perfect fit for MSG.


Kanter/O'Quinn/Biyombo
Beasley/Hicks
Hardaway/Dotson/Lance
Payton/Frank/Burke
Lee

Would that be enough to get me to watch games? Sure it is.
But not by trading another #1 pick. It's already haunted us for an eternity.

Knicks would go bankrupt trying to pay Kanter/O'Quinn/Biyombo

My thought is: Biyombo/KOQ is affordable and functional at a high level of play.

We need to acquire a PF who plays hard. Say Jerebko, Randle, Leuer, Crowder,... just throwing out a few names who might match up in trades.

fwk00
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2/7/2018  12:30 AM
nixluva wrote:I don't see the Knicks trading their #1 pick. Seems like too much IMO.

I agree although this is a weak draft.

The other consequence of this year's situation is that we have three picks. Maybe trade off next year's #1. The sheer number of players becomes untenable.

martin
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2/7/2018  1:18 AM
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22351198/fallout-kristaps-porzingis-acl-tear-nba

Impact of Porzingis missing time next season
In addition to missing the rest of this season, Porzingis will probably see his rehab extend well into the 2018-19 campaign. A pair of players who suffered ACL tears last February stand as good examples. Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine, who tore his ACL while playing for the Minnesota Timberwolves on February 3, 2017, made his return to the court last month, on January 13 -- about three weeks shy of a year later. Meanwhile, Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker just appeared in his first game of 2017-18 on Friday, 51 weeks after his ACL tear last February 8.

Given Porzingis' importance to New York's future, the organization will want to be cautious with his development and ensure he's 100 percent before playing again, much the same as how the Bulls and Bucks handled their young players. So while shorter returns are certainly possible -- and used to be commonplace -- I wouldn't expect to see Porzingis back in NBA action until January 2019 at earliest.

That timetable has implications for how the Knicks handle this week's trade deadline and next offseason. Playing half a season without Porzingis would make it difficult for New York to compete for a playoff spot in 2018-19, which could shift the organization's focus to the following season -- two seasons from now.

Already, the Knicks looked likely to be able to create cap space for the summer of 2019, when Enes Kanter's contract will be up (Kanter has an $18.6 million player option for 2018-19 that he seems likely to exercise) and Lance Thomas' $7.6 million salary is nonguaranteed. By 2019, Joakim Noah will also be entering the final season of his exorbitant contract, which should be easier to trade at that point. Alternatively, New York could waive Noah and stretch his remaining salary, reducing his cap hit from $19.3 million to $6.4 million.

One more way the Knicks could create 2019 cap space would be trading shooting guard Courtney Lee for a player with two years remaining on his contract. I've suggested previously that Lee is a good sell-high candidate because he's making a career-high 42 percent of his 3-pointers. If New York isn't going to win next season, that's all the more reason to trade Lee now, since he'll become less desirable to other teams as he ages and his salary increases.

The other question the Knicks face is what to do with Porzingis himself, since he's eligible for a contract extension this coming fall. Though neither LaVine nor Parker agreed to extensions with their teams while rehabbing, Porzingis' superior track record of success and role as the face of the franchise suggests to me he probably will get a max extension from New York.

Alas, Porzingis' injury will make it difficult and probably impossible for him to make an All-NBA team (or win Defensive Player of the Year) next season and qualify to start his extension at 30 percent of the salary cap rather than the usual 25 percent for players with his experience.
Long-term impact of ACL injuries on development

The bigger question than when Porzingis returns is how well he'll play. It's well established that players perform worse the first season after ACL injuries, attributable in large part to rusty shooting immediately after returning. Less investigated is the long-term impact ACL tears have on how players develop.

After LaVine's injury, I took a look at the development of other 21-year-old players who had suffered ACL tears and found modest decline even two and three years beyond the injury as compared to their projected performance.

Since Porzingis is already 22, let's expand that sample to include players aged 21 through 23 at the time of their ACL tear. As before, I've compared their projected wins above replacement player (WARP) over the following three seasons based on my SCHOENE projections to what they actually accomplished. The results aren't encouraging.

Performance vs. projection after ACL tears

Player Season Projected WARP Actual WARP Difference
Derrick Rose 2012 40.3 1.6 -38.7
Ricky Rubio 2012 27.0 11.4 -15.6
Nenê 2005 11.7 4.0 -7.7
Iman Shumpert 2012 9.4 1.8 -7.6
Kendall Marshall 2015 4.5 -0.8 -5.3
Nenad Krstic 2007 4.2 -2.9 -7.0
Jared Jeffries 2003 3.6 -2.8 -6.4
Jamal Crawford 2001 2.3 13.1 10.8
Al Harrington 2002 0.7 -0.3 -1.0
Jason Smith 2008 -1.0 -1.2 -0.2
Corey Brewer 2009 -3.8 0.7 4.5
Adam Morrison 2007 -9.0 -2.2 6.7
Players ages 21 through 23 at time of ACL tear

Of the nine players projected to be better than replacement over the next three years, only one (Jamal Crawford) matched or beat his projection. Most fell substantially short, highlighted by Porzingis' former Knicks teammate Derrick Rose, whose decline after tearing his ACL makes him a worst-case scenario.

Looking at performance versus projections on a year-by-year basis shows once again that while the first season after the injury is worst, players continue to lag beyond that point.
Performance vs. projection after ACL tears
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3
Projected WARP 2.2 2.7 2.7
Actual WARP -0.2 1.0 1.1

Porzingis' famed outside shooting is a reason to be hopeful he can buck the trend. Most of the players who struggled after their ACL tears were poor outside shooters, like Rose and Ricky Rubio. The better shooters on this list, most notably Crawford and stretch big Al Harrington, tended to perform much better than others. Both Crawford and Harrington enjoyed long, productive careers, as has Nenê.

The other encouraging note for Porzingis' development is that he has room to fall short of his projections and remain a valuable player. Based on his performance over the last two-plus seasons, SCHOENE would project Porzingis for nearly 30 WARP over the next three seasons, more than anyone in the group of comparable players save Rose.

Nonetheless, Porzingis' ACL tear figures to have an impact on how he plays the game and how effective he is. It's possible that a loss in lateral mobility -- and his opportunity ability to bulk up his skinny build during the rehab process -- could hasten Porzingis' move to primarily playing center rather than power forward. Let's hope that's the biggest impact we see from this injury.

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BRIGGS
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2/7/2018  1:28 AM
martin wrote:http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22351198/fallout-kristaps-porzingis-acl-tear-nba

Impact of Porzingis missing time next season
In addition to missing the rest of this season, Porzingis will probably see his rehab extend well into the 2018-19 campaign. A pair of players who suffered ACL tears last February stand as good examples. Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine, who tore his ACL while playing for the Minnesota Timberwolves on February 3, 2017, made his return to the court last month, on January 13 -- about three weeks shy of a year later. Meanwhile, Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker just appeared in his first game of 2017-18 on Friday, 51 weeks after his ACL tear last February 8.

Given Porzingis' importance to New York's future, the organization will want to be cautious with his development and ensure he's 100 percent before playing again, much the same as how the Bulls and Bucks handled their young players. So while shorter returns are certainly possible -- and used to be commonplace -- I wouldn't expect to see Porzingis back in NBA action until January 2019 at earliest.

That timetable has implications for how the Knicks handle this week's trade deadline and next offseason. Playing half a season without Porzingis would make it difficult for New York to compete for a playoff spot in 2018-19, which could shift the organization's focus to the following season -- two seasons from now.

Already, the Knicks looked likely to be able to create cap space for the summer of 2019, when Enes Kanter's contract will be up (Kanter has an $18.6 million player option for 2018-19 that he seems likely to exercise) and Lance Thomas' $7.6 million salary is nonguaranteed. By 2019, Joakim Noah will also be entering the final season of his exorbitant contract, which should be easier to trade at that point. Alternatively, New York could waive Noah and stretch his remaining salary, reducing his cap hit from $19.3 million to $6.4 million.

One more way the Knicks could create 2019 cap space would be trading shooting guard Courtney Lee for a player with two years remaining on his contract. I've suggested previously that Lee is a good sell-high candidate because he's making a career-high 42 percent of his 3-pointers. If New York isn't going to win next season, that's all the more reason to trade Lee now, since he'll become less desirable to other teams as he ages and his salary increases.

The other question the Knicks face is what to do with Porzingis himself, since he's eligible for a contract extension this coming fall. Though neither LaVine nor Parker agreed to extensions with their teams while rehabbing, Porzingis' superior track record of success and role as the face of the franchise suggests to me he probably will get a max extension from New York.

Alas, Porzingis' injury will make it difficult and probably impossible for him to make an All-NBA team (or win Defensive Player of the Year) next season and qualify to start his extension at 30 percent of the salary cap rather than the usual 25 percent for players with his experience.
Long-term impact of ACL injuries on development

The bigger question than when Porzingis returns is how well he'll play. It's well established that players perform worse the first season after ACL injuries, attributable in large part to rusty shooting immediately after returning. Less investigated is the long-term impact ACL tears have on how players develop.

After LaVine's injury, I took a look at the development of other 21-year-old players who had suffered ACL tears and found modest decline even two and three years beyond the injury as compared to their projected performance.

Since Porzingis is already 22, let's expand that sample to include players aged 21 through 23 at the time of their ACL tear. As before, I've compared their projected wins above replacement player (WARP) over the following three seasons based on my SCHOENE projections to what they actually accomplished. The results aren't encouraging.

Performance vs. projection after ACL tears

Player Season Projected WARP Actual WARP Difference
Derrick Rose 2012 40.3 1.6 -38.7
Ricky Rubio 2012 27.0 11.4 -15.6
Nenê 2005 11.7 4.0 -7.7
Iman Shumpert 2012 9.4 1.8 -7.6
Kendall Marshall 2015 4.5 -0.8 -5.3
Nenad Krstic 2007 4.2 -2.9 -7.0
Jared Jeffries 2003 3.6 -2.8 -6.4
Jamal Crawford 2001 2.3 13.1 10.8
Al Harrington 2002 0.7 -0.3 -1.0
Jason Smith 2008 -1.0 -1.2 -0.2
Corey Brewer 2009 -3.8 0.7 4.5
Adam Morrison 2007 -9.0 -2.2 6.7
Players ages 21 through 23 at time of ACL tear

Of the nine players projected to be better than replacement over the next three years, only one (Jamal Crawford) matched or beat his projection. Most fell substantially short, highlighted by Porzingis' former Knicks teammate Derrick Rose, whose decline after tearing his ACL makes him a worst-case scenario.

Looking at performance versus projections on a year-by-year basis shows once again that while the first season after the injury is worst, players continue to lag beyond that point.
Performance vs. projection after ACL tears
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3
Projected WARP 2.2 2.7 2.7
Actual WARP -0.2 1.0 1.1

Porzingis' famed outside shooting is a reason to be hopeful he can buck the trend. Most of the players who struggled after their ACL tears were poor outside shooters, like Rose and Ricky Rubio. The better shooters on this list, most notably Crawford and stretch big Al Harrington, tended to perform much better than others. Both Crawford and Harrington enjoyed long, productive careers, as has Nenê.

The other encouraging note for Porzingis' development is that he has room to fall short of his projections and remain a valuable player. Based on his performance over the last two-plus seasons, SCHOENE would project Porzingis for nearly 30 WARP over the next three seasons, more than anyone in the group of comparable players save Rose.

Nonetheless, Porzingis' ACL tear figures to have an impact on how he plays the game and how effective he is. It's possible that a loss in lateral mobility -- and his opportunity ability to bulk up his skinny build during the rehab process -- could hasten Porzingis' move to primarily playing center rather than power forward. Let's hope that's the biggest impact we see from this injury.


If he comes back as a skilled Mchale like post player who relies less on jumping he will have a much easier time and possibly a healthier career. The way he jumped around--sometime recklessly at 7-3 gave him a huge risk profile. Now he can change that.

GustavBahler
Posts: 34635
Alba Posts: 15
Joined: 7/12/2010
Member: #3186

2/7/2018  1:30 AM    LAST EDITED: 2/7/2018  1:35 AM
martin wrote:http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22351198/fallout-kristaps-porzingis-acl-tear-nba

Impact of Porzingis missing time next season
In addition to missing the rest of this season, Porzingis will probably see his rehab extend well into the 2018-19 campaign. A pair of players who suffered ACL tears last February stand as good examples. Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine, who tore his ACL while playing for the Minnesota Timberwolves on February 3, 2017, made his return to the court last month, on January 13 -- about three weeks shy of a year later. Meanwhile, Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker just appeared in his first game of 2017-18 on Friday, 51 weeks after his ACL tear last February 8.

Given Porzingis' importance to New York's future, the organization will want to be cautious with his development and ensure he's 100 percent before playing again, much the same as how the Bulls and Bucks handled their young players. So while shorter returns are certainly possible -- and used to be commonplace -- I wouldn't expect to see Porzingis back in NBA action until January 2019 at earliest.

That timetable has implications for how the Knicks handle this week's trade deadline and next offseason. Playing half a season without Porzingis would make it difficult for New York to compete for a playoff spot in 2018-19, which could shift the organization's focus to the following season -- two seasons from now.

Already, the Knicks looked likely to be able to create cap space for the summer of 2019, when Enes Kanter's contract will be up (Kanter has an $18.6 million player option for 2018-19 that he seems likely to exercise) and Lance Thomas' $7.6 million salary is nonguaranteed. By 2019, Joakim Noah will also be entering the final season of his exorbitant contract, which should be easier to trade at that point. Alternatively, New York could waive Noah and stretch his remaining salary, reducing his cap hit from $19.3 million to $6.4 million.

One more way the Knicks could create 2019 cap space would be trading shooting guard Courtney Lee for a player with two years remaining on his contract. I've suggested previously that Lee is a good sell-high candidate because he's making a career-high 42 percent of his 3-pointers. If New York isn't going to win next season, that's all the more reason to trade Lee now, since he'll become less desirable to other teams as he ages and his salary increases.

The other question the Knicks face is what to do with Porzingis himself, since he's eligible for a contract extension this coming fall. Though neither LaVine nor Parker agreed to extensions with their teams while rehabbing, Porzingis' superior track record of success and role as the face of the franchise suggests to me he probably will get a max extension from New York.

Alas, Porzingis' injury will make it difficult and probably impossible for him to make an All-NBA team (or win Defensive Player of the Year) next season and qualify to start his extension at 30 percent of the salary cap rather than the usual 25 percent for players with his experience.
Long-term impact of ACL injuries on development

The bigger question than when Porzingis returns is how well he'll play. It's well established that players perform worse the first season after ACL injuries, attributable in large part to rusty shooting immediately after returning. Less investigated is the long-term impact ACL tears have on how players develop.

After LaVine's injury, I took a look at the development of other 21-year-old players who had suffered ACL tears and found modest decline even two and three years beyond the injury as compared to their projected performance.

Since Porzingis is already 22, let's expand that sample to include players aged 21 through 23 at the time of their ACL tear. As before, I've compared their projected wins above replacement player (WARP) over the following three seasons based on my SCHOENE projections to what they actually accomplished. The results aren't encouraging.

Performance vs. projection after ACL tears

Player Season Projected WARP Actual WARP Difference
Derrick Rose 2012 40.3 1.6 -38.7
Ricky Rubio 2012 27.0 11.4 -15.6
Nenê 2005 11.7 4.0 -7.7
Iman Shumpert 2012 9.4 1.8 -7.6
Kendall Marshall 2015 4.5 -0.8 -5.3
Nenad Krstic 2007 4.2 -2.9 -7.0
Jared Jeffries 2003 3.6 -2.8 -6.4
Jamal Crawford 2001 2.3 13.1 10.8
Al Harrington 2002 0.7 -0.3 -1.0
Jason Smith 2008 -1.0 -1.2 -0.2
Corey Brewer 2009 -3.8 0.7 4.5
Adam Morrison 2007 -9.0 -2.2 6.7
Players ages 21 through 23 at time of ACL tear

Of the nine players projected to be better than replacement over the next three years, only one (Jamal Crawford) matched or beat his projection. Most fell substantially short, highlighted by Porzingis' former Knicks teammate Derrick Rose, whose decline after tearing his ACL makes him a worst-case scenario.

Looking at performance versus projections on a year-by-year basis shows once again that while the first season after the injury is worst, players continue to lag beyond that point.
Performance vs. projection after ACL tears
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3
Projected WARP 2.2 2.7 2.7
Actual WARP -0.2 1.0 1.1

Porzingis' famed outside shooting is a reason to be hopeful he can buck the trend. Most of the players who struggled after their ACL tears were poor outside shooters, like Rose and Ricky Rubio. The better shooters on this list, most notably Crawford and stretch big Al Harrington, tended to perform much better than others. Both Crawford and Harrington enjoyed long, productive careers, as has Nenê.

The other encouraging note for Porzingis' development is that he has room to fall short of his projections and remain a valuable player. Based on his performance over the last two-plus seasons, SCHOENE would project Porzingis for nearly 30 WARP over the next three seasons, more than anyone in the group of comparable players save Rose.

Nonetheless, Porzingis' ACL tear figures to have an impact on how he plays the game and how effective he is. It's possible that a loss in lateral mobility -- and his opportunity ability to bulk up his skinny build during the rehab process -- could hasten Porzingis' move to primarily playing center rather than power forward. Let's hope that's the biggest impact we see from this injury.

Impressed how fast this article was researched and written.

If KP can come back with an even better post game, not being able to take defenders off the dribble like he used to wont be big deal, if thats the outcome.

If KP can learn to bank the ball in high off the glass when he posts up, he will be tough to defend.

Ewing's knees were shot not long after he got into the league, but learned to adapt. Im sure KP will do the same if there are any lingering issues from this injury

stopstandthere
Posts: 20754
Alba Posts: 6
Joined: 3/3/2015
Member: #6004

2/7/2018  1:45 AM
knicks1248 wrote:
Welpee wrote:Didn't the Bucks also end Ewing's season back in the day.

broke his wrist

Oh I hate the Bucks.

smackeddog
Posts: 33134
Alba Posts: 0
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Member: #883
2/7/2018  2:11 AM
Worst possible timing on two fronts- firstly it's too late in the season to tank badly enough to get into the bottom 5. Then next season, when we're finally in a position to suck bad enough for a top 3 pick, they're changing the lottery rules so suck NG badly no longer benefits you. Great
NY Knicks: Confirmed, KP Torn Left ACL

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