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Nylon Calculus article: "Donovan Mitchell, Brandon Ingram, and lessons in the development of NBA players"
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martin
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1/29/2018  2:09 PM
Statistical look at how rookie development timelines, deep numbers, lots of charts.

https://fansided.com/2018/01/23/nylon-calculus-donovan-mitchell-brandon-ingram-survival-analysis/

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nixluva
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1/29/2018  3:01 PM
This was a good frame of reference to keep in mind.

Finally, although the age variable was deemed marginally insignificant by P-Value, its relationship can still provide some insight. Each additional year of age showed a 4 percent decrease in hazard rate, meaning that older players were slightly more likely to be more productive quickly. Which makes a lot of sense! We would expect older players to be more developed and younger players to be more raw. While we often prize younger players in the draft, it’s because they will have more room and time to grow into stars, not because we expect younger players to be stars quicker than their older counterparts.

Remember, Donovan Mitchell is a 21-year-old rookie playing at the guard spot, and Brandon Ingram was 19 last year playing at the wing. Factors like age and position can make a difference, and it’s all about expectation and perspective. If Mitchell had come out struggling and unable to make any real impact, the conversation would be more about how, at 21, his window for improvement is more limited. In fact, that’s very similar to the preseason dialogue surrounding Kris Dunn. But Dunn too, like Ingram, has shown signs of real improvement this season.

EnySpree
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1/29/2018  6:38 PM
Timberwolves got Teague and traded their 19 year old in a packedge for Jimmy Butler.... they don't give a **** what Dunn is doing in chicago.
You know why I'm here....
CrushAlot
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1/29/2018  6:49 PM
nixluva wrote:This was a good frame of reference to keep in mind.

Finally, although the age variable was deemed marginally insignificant by P-Value, its relationship can still provide some insight. Each additional year of age showed a 4 percent decrease in hazard rate, meaning that older players were slightly more likely to be more productive quickly. Which makes a lot of sense! We would expect older players to be more developed and younger players to be more raw. While we often prize younger players in the draft, it’s because they will have more room and time to grow into stars, not because we expect younger players to be stars quicker than their older counterparts.

Remember, Donovan Mitchell is a 21-year-old rookie playing at the guard spot, and Brandon Ingram was 19 last year playing at the wing. Factors like age and position can make a difference, and it’s all about expectation and perspective. If Mitchell had come out struggling and unable to make any real impact, the conversation would be more about how, at 21, his window for improvement is more limited. In fact, that’s very similar to the preseason dialogue surrounding Kris Dunn. But Dunn too, like Ingram, has shown signs of real improvement this season.

One of the major points in the article was about wing players taking longer to develop like Ingram. Thought this was interesting.
Applying a three-position taxonomy, big men and guards are typically quicker to produce compared to their peers at the wing. This should jive anecdotally as well. In this decade, Andrew Wiggins is the only wing to grab Rookie of the Year honors, but A) it was in one of the weakest drafts in recent memory, and B) he has not progressed beyond his rookie season as hoped, especially on defense. Kawhi Leonard, Otto Porter, Victor Oladipo (among others) are all examples of wings who took some time to gradually translate their versatile potential into consistent on-court results.

Meanwhile, guards have the chance to accumulate numbers faster by sheer virtue of having the most control over the ball, and big men, well… look no further than the arrival of the Unicorn Age of the NBA.

You playTrey Burke... Wally Szcerbiak
CrushAlot
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1/29/2018  6:53 PM
I can't remember what the podcast was Johnathon Givony was on and he said Mitchell graded out as the best prospect in the draft in regards to his mental make up.
You playTrey Burke... Wally Szcerbiak
BigDaddyG
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1/29/2018  7:03 PM
CrushAlot wrote:I can't remember what the podcast was Johnathon Givony was on and he said Mitchell graded out as the best prospect in the draft in regards to his mental make up.

It was the Won podcast. He also mentioned the work he did on his body and handle since highschool.

Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
technomaster
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1/30/2018  2:27 PM
It's an interesting article in that it analyzes the outcomes. Not sure what to make of it though. It kind of says that:

Some players are great from day 1 (Grant Hill, Lebron James, Paul Pierce, Kevin Durant, Carmelo, Vince Carter)
Some players take a while to develop into greatness (Kobe Bryant, Leonard, the greek freak, Derozan, Paul George, Rashard Lewis, Anthony Davis, Joe Johnson, KP, Michael Redd, allan houston)
Some players start out looking like future stars but failed to rise, evolving into either into role players or out of the league (Landry Fields, Marshon Brooks, Kerry Kittles, Shane Battier, Lamar Odom, Tim Thomas)

I reckon you're good from the get go, or you're young.

Not sure if I missed it, but there doesn't seem to be a good predictor. But that younger players seem to have a longer leash. (which probably makes sense, since conventional wisdom says if you show skills/talent early, you have greater upside...)

I would find it curious if any players who didn't put up appreciable numbers over their first 3 seasons still emerged as NBA starters (let alone All-stars).

Kevin Dolorico | "That was two, two from the heart." - John Starks
BigDaddyG
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1/30/2018  2:38 PM
technomaster wrote:It's an interesting article in that it analyzes the outcomes. Not sure what to make of it though. It kind of says that:

Some players are great from day 1 (Grant Hill, Lebron James, Paul Pierce, Kevin Durant, Carmelo, Vince Carter)
Some players take a while to develop into greatness (Kobe Bryant, Leonard, the greek freak, Derozan, Paul George, Rashard Lewis, Anthony Davis, Joe Johnson, KP, Michael Redd, allan houston)
Some players start out looking like future stars but failed to rise, evolving into either into role players or out of the league (Landry Fields, Marshon Brooks, Kerry Kittles, Shane Battier, Lamar Odom, Tim Thomas)

I reckon you're good from the get go, or you're young.

Not sure if I missed it, but there doesn't seem to be a good predictor. But that younger players seem to have a longer leash. (which probably makes sense, since conventional wisdom says if you show skills/talent early, you have greater upside...)

I would find it curious if any players who didn't put up appreciable numbers over their first 3 seasons still emerged as NBA starters (let alone All-stars).


Kyle Lowry, Trevor Ariza, Jermaine oneal and Draymond instantly come to mind.
Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
nixluva
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1/30/2018  3:24 PM
BigDaddyG wrote:
technomaster wrote:It's an interesting article in that it analyzes the outcomes. Not sure what to make of it though. It kind of says that:

Some players are great from day 1 (Grant Hill, Lebron James, Paul Pierce, Kevin Durant, Carmelo, Vince Carter)
Some players take a while to develop into greatness (Kobe Bryant, Leonard, the greek freak, Derozan, Paul George, Rashard Lewis, Anthony Davis, Joe Johnson, KP, Michael Redd, allan houston)
Some players start out looking like future stars but failed to rise, evolving into either into role players or out of the league (Landry Fields, Marshon Brooks, Kerry Kittles, Shane Battier, Lamar Odom, Tim Thomas)

I reckon you're good from the get go, or you're young.

Not sure if I missed it, but there doesn't seem to be a good predictor. But that younger players seem to have a longer leash. (which probably makes sense, since conventional wisdom says if you show skills/talent early, you have greater upside...)

I would find it curious if any players who didn't put up appreciable numbers over their first 3 seasons still emerged as NBA starters (let alone All-stars).


Kyle Lowry, Trevor Ariza, Jermaine oneal and Draymond instantly come to mind.

I was thinking of Chauncey Billups.

fishmike
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1/30/2018  4:45 PM
its part of the talent game. There are many facets.
Its not just finding the potential. Its also being able to evaluate its growth. Patience is part of it. Finding talent slow to develop but that still can is just as valuable as finding it in the first place. Call it the NBA after market. Hopefully with THjr and now Burke we get a couple players other teams gave up on that blossom here. Im still bullish on Dotson. These are the kinds of moves that can push a team to the next level. I mean every team is trying to find these guys as well, but its promising to see we might have nabbed a couple.

A lot of doom and gloom from the same posters who seem to think the only way to acquire good players is 2 at a time with cap space from an empty roster and having pick 1-5 for a few years in a row. We added a lot of talent this year. There is going to be a lot more movement. It would be shocking if there wasnt. Lets see. This FO brought in a lot of guys. Record isnt great but team looks better than last year and everyone assumed this squad was taking a big step back.

I think tanking is stupid as you put your fate in things you cant control. Too many bad draft, bad draft picks, and busts to avoid improving my team hoping for good draft position. Teams who have successfully "rebuilt" have done so with a mix off assets but one thing generally remains and that is patience, especially with young talent.

technomaster
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1/30/2018  5:46 PM
Looking some guys up. Jermaine O'Neal averaged around 4ppg over his first 4 seasons. In his 5th season he exploded for 12.9ppg, then averaged 20+ over the next 6 seasons.

Billups averaged over 10ppg over his first 4 seasons (11.2 as a 21yo rookie, 13.9ppg in his 2nd year). So by the standards of this article he already sort of made it. It wasn't until his 6th season when he joined the Pistons when he emerged as a borderline all-star sort of player, though.

Ariza became a legit starter quality player in his 6th season (albeit at the ripe old age of 24).

Lowry looked like a pretty legit player by seasons 2 (averaged 9.6ppg in 25.5mpg); averaging 13.5ppg as a 5th year player (age 24). He looked like a journeyman until his 8th season (age 28), when he averaged 17.9ppg.

I think when you consider these players, some of them emerged as legit starters several seasons after their rookie contracts ended. All of them were traded and bounced around - but no wonder why their teams gave up on them.

So back to a few current young Knicks:
* THJr had early success, regressed for a few years, but now looks like a borderline all-star.
* Kanter had extremely limited minutes over his first 2 seasons before becoming a more productive player (in theory) in his 3rd seasons. The fascinating thing here is that when you look at his per-36 numbers, he's been relatively consistent over his career, always a high percentage scorer, always a good rebounder. He's a clear case of not getting a chance - not that the talent wasn't there. (who knows, maybe his D was THAT BAD)
* Frank Ntilikina - the story has just begun. Basically he needs to show marked improvement over the next 2 years, otherwise he's as good as gone.

Kevin Dolorico | "That was two, two from the heart." - John Starks
Nylon Calculus article: "Donovan Mitchell, Brandon Ingram, and lessons in the development of NBA players"

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