How does Mitchell Robinson project for the 2018 NBA draft?
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How does Mitchell Robinson project for the 2018 NBA draft?
by Jonathan Givony on 2018-03-16 01:01:00 UTC (original: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/22619083/how-does-mitchell-robinson-project-2018-nba-draft)The NCAA tournament tips off this month, but Mitchell Robinson will be sitting it out. Instead, he'll be biding his time in suburban Dallas, walking back and forth from a rented condo to a nearby fitness club, counting off the days until Adam Silver calls his name June 22 on NBA draft night.
A series of bad decisions led Robinson here, without a team and unable to be scouted until the NBA releases its early entry list for the draft at the end of April. He isn't allowed to be evaluated in non-sanctioned practice or game settings until then. That doesn't mean NBA teams have forgotten about him, but he's very much off the radar and an afterthought at this point, which perhaps might not be the worst thing for him.
After the drama of twice joining and abandoning Western Kentucky, the college he committed to but ultimately never played a game for, NBA scouts openly question the poor advice Robinson received at the time and wonder about the difficulties he encountered while navigating the college recruiting world. Will these same influences continue to cause issues for him at the NBA level as well?
That's how we got here, watching Robinson work out with his high school teammate in late February, being trained by former NBA player and assistant coach Morlon Wiley. A spin class is being conducted next door, and overhead retirees walk briskly on a track. It's not the type of evaluation setting scouts prefer before making a multimillion dollar decision in June, but it's not all that unfavorable for Robinson, who could certainly benefit from his "mystery man" status. He turned down EuroLeague offers from the likes of Zalgiris in Lithuania and Olympiacos in Greece for that precise reason -- not wanting to lock himself into a season extending well into June and the prospect of a multiyear deal featuring an NBA buyout.
Officially measured by USA Basketball last summer at 7-feet barefoot with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and 9-foot-3 standing reach -- plus possessing freakish athletic ability for someone his size -- Robinson is one of just a handful of human beings on the planet who share such coveted physical traits. While he hasn't put on any weight since last summer (he told us he weighs 229 pounds now, down from the 233 he weighed then), his frame is well-proportioned and should be able to handle as much bulk as needed. He has real basketball talent, as well, with a soft touch around the rim and from the perimeter, along with a skill set that is raw but promising and could be harnessed into a real weapon in time.
We watched him knock down quite a few jump shots over the course of a 90-minute workout this week, both with his feet set and off the dribble -- sometimes from well beyond the 3-point line, which is not something he has ever been able to demonstrate in 5-on-5 games. In many ways, Robinson is a blank canvas waiting for professional strength and conditioning and skill-development coaches -- and simply forced to bide his time until then.
With his potential as a rim-running, pick-and-roll-setting and lob-catching rim protector/offensive rebounder, Robinson is exactly what NBA teams are actively scouring the globe for at the center position, both physically and from a skill set perspective. He covers ground exceptionally, plays quick off his feet and has excellent hands. And he has proved to be one of the most devastating shot-blockers and offensive rebounders in our databases' history while competing on the AAU level in the Nike EYBL, which has a rich background of producing top-shelf NBA draft picks.
Best PER in Nike EYBL history
Player Team/Year PER
Mitchell Robinson 2016 Pro Skills 40.5
Michael Porter 2016 MoKan Elite 37.9
Deandre Ayton 2016 California Supreme 32.7
Trae Young 2016 MoKan Elite 32.7
Georges Niang 2011 BABC 32.4
Jayson Tatum 2015 Saint Louis Eagles 32.3
Brice Johnson 2011 CP3 All-Stars 32.3
Andrew Wiggins 2012 CIA Bounce 32.1
Collin Sexton 2016 Southern Stampede 31.6
Wendell Carter 2016 CP3 All-Stars 31.2
NBA teams will have to weigh the uncertainty of not having watched him play competitive basketball in any real setting (they aren't allowed to scout high school or AAU games) with the potential he is certain to demonstrate over the course of the pre-draft process. That's all while coming to terms with the diminishing market for big men and trying to gain a better understanding of Robinson's likelihood to reach his full potential. Grainy footage from online high school video platform Krossover is the best they can hope for, with Robinson's strong performances against Deandre Ayton (23 points, nine rebounds, four blocks) and Marvin Bagley (19 points, 13 rebounds, four blocks in 24 minutes) certain to be heavily scrutinized in particular.
There's very little hard data here for NBA front offices, no formula or historical precedent to help guide their decision making process and quite a bit of uncertainty still about how Robinson will perform in private workouts, interviews and other fact-finding settings leading up to June. Despite Robinson's lottery-level talent, teams drafting in the first round will still consider the red flags from his wavering at Western Kentucky and more background intel that could have led to his college departure. A lot will come down to their appetite for risk, which admittedly diminishes the further outside of the lottery you get, especially in a draft that is being harshly criticized for the lack of depth it boasts outside the top-10 talent. How much of a project is Robinson, and just how far off is he from being able to help a team? Will he be a willing partner in this endeavor, someone a team can trust to be a reliable understudy?
The people around Robinson say he has simply made mistakes that are as much a product of his environment growing up and the chaotic world of grass-roots basketball as his own character. There is talk of him working out against Jermaine O'Neal in the upcoming months leading up to the draft, as much for the off-court mentorship O'Neal might provide as the on-court benefits of learning from a similarly sized big man who made six All-Star games and spent 18 years in the NBA.
Robinson's workout reminded us somewhat of a similar one we attended in 2015 with Willie Cauley-Stein, featuring a huge number of eye-popping dunks, off-the-dribble 3-pointers and impressive feats of athleticism and talent. Robinson has been pacing himself to a degree, not wanting to peak until the pre-draft process fully kicks off in May, all while hoping to make as big of a splash as possible.
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When asked what he can do to address the concerns NBA teams might have and make them comfortable regarding his capacity for reaching his full potential, Robinson said, "I'm just gonna have to kill the workouts." This was a good dry run for us to take in before the lights really come on in a few months, and he will likely be better prepared by then.
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