Insider article from Pelton and Givony on Doncic.
Is Luka Doncic still a top three 2018 NBA draft pick?
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Is Luka Doncic still a top three 2018 NBA draft pick?
by Jonathan GivonyKevin Pelton on (original: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/23581610/is-luka-doncic-top-three-2018-nba-draft-pick)Kevin Pelton: When the Phoenix Suns landed the No. 1 pick in this year's NBA draft at last week's lottery, it seemed their choice was one between Arizona center Deandre Ayton and Slovenian superstar Luka Doncic, with whomever the Suns passed on going No. 2 to the Sacramento Kings.
After all, Doncic has been in the top two of your rankings all season, Jonathan, and his projection by my stats-based model is not only best in this year's draft but the best for any prospect I have rated dating back to 2003. So I was stunned to read your update from last weekend's Euroleague Final Four in Belgrade that you believe Doncic could slip all the way out of the top three.
How strong is this suspicion? What percentage chance would you give him of ultimately going in the top three?
Jonathan Givony: Barring a trade, I'd say Doncic being drafted in the top three is no better than 50-50. I've felt an increasing disparity the past few months between the public's bullish perception of Doncic -- which we share -- and what NBA executives say privately. While I believe they are overthinking things, the skepticism is a lot more prevalent than expected. You would think a guy like Doncic, who has played in as many big games as any teenage prospect in recent memory, would be relatively immune to these types of ups and downs in his evaluation process, but it seems that's not the case.
I'm not ready to say he is certain to drop outside of the top three, but I do think that if the draft were tonight, I wouldn't have him in that range. Doncic and his camp could have some influence on where he lands if they choose to use his contractual status with Real Madrid as leverage (explained below), but the reality at the moment is that the teams in the top three might all pass on him anyway. The fact that Sacramento (No. 2), Atlanta (No. 3) and Memphis (No. 4) all declined to send a single person from the U.S. to watch the Euroleague Final Four tells me something about their interest level.
The Kings were initially supposed to have GM Vlade Divac in Belgrade, according to a Sacramento front-office executive at the combine, but Divac never made it, instead electing to attend his son's college graduation in California. People I trust say the Kings' front office has been expressing significant skepticism about Doncic's NBA prospects all year in private conversations, long before they moved up in the draft. At this stage, I think a lot of NBA teams have already made up their minds about Doncic, and it isn't quite as flattering as we initially thought.
A team that has had success with international players (for example, the Dallas Mavericks) might try to jump into the top three to snag Doncic. And there is still a lot of basketball left to be played in Spain, with the playoffs yet to tip off, and likely close to a full month of games (and Doncic highlights) still to come. Doncic's play, including from this past weekend, has made a compelling case for him to be the No. 1 pick, and I don't think he should fall out of the top two. Those considering passing on him will likely want to double back and make sure they aren't making a huge mistake.
Pelton: How much do you think the timing of the Final Four opposite the combine affected the representation of scouts?
You were able to attend the first day of the combine before traveling to Belgrade in time for Friday's semifinals, but it's possible not everyone has that kind of dedication. Do you expect to see more American-based scouts and decision-makers from those teams visit Spain for the ACB playoffs, or will they be too busy conducting individual or group workouts?
Givony: First, I don't think it was due to a lack of dedication, but more a feeling that their bases were covered already by previous evaluations. I am certain that people whose careers are riding on this decision would have just as much (if not a lot more) motivation to get on a plane to Belgrade than me. So I don't necessarily buy that it was too hard or inconvenient for them to make it to the Final Four.
Second, there was nothing stopping executives from attending both days of the combine and then coming over for the championship game on Sunday -- as Suns assistant GM Pat Connelly and New Orleans Pelicans GM Dell Demps did. In all, about half the teams had high-ranking executives from the U.S. in attendance. And yes, I do think that GMs, owners and other high-level decision-makers will find their way to Spain in the next month to get another look at Doncic in the ACB playoffs.
What influence does Doncic have?
Givony: We should point out that whether or not Doncic goes in the top three won't be determined only by evaluations from Phoenix, Sacramento and Atlanta. Doncic and his advisers can also try to influence his destination. Here's how that could work:
• Doncic has declared for the draft, but he's still under contract with Real Madrid (with a buyout he'll need to contribute toward) and has not committed to leaving Europe next season, though it would be surprising if he elected to stay. Delaying his rookie-scale deal and getting to that more valuable second contract a year late could be costly long term.
Still, the threat of Doncic not playing in the NBA immediately -- or, in a worst-case scenario, waiting the full three years before coming over so he can negotiate a deal outside the rookie scale (similar to Nikola Mirotic in 2014) -- could prevent teams from trading for or drafting him, if they get word he'll attempt to use that leverage. (While players escape the rookie scale after three years, they are still restricted to negotiating with the team holding their draft rights.) Just the sheer potential for a public relations nightmare of that nature may be enough to scare off teams, especially if they feel that the gap between him and the next best player on their boards isn't that significant.
• Similar to a few other top prospects, Doncic didn't go through medical evaluations conducted by the NBA and all 30 team doctors during the combine in Chicago last week. He will likely conduct his own physical, and then disperse it to only the teams he's most interested in joining. NBA executives get queasy about picking a player this high without knowing his medical background and having their doctor's opinion about how his body might hold up long term. While he's never had a significant injury, Doncic has played a million games over the past two seasons, so having a team doctor examine him is something organizations will likely covet before they invest such a high pick on him.
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• Doncic has one of the more experienced agents in the industry, Bill Duffy, handling his business affairs with NBA teams. There is little doubt that for a player of his caliber there are significant differences among his potential landing spots regarding the perceived stability of the organizations, experience with integrating European players (particularly in regard to the coaching staff), and the type of complementary talent on the roster. Market size and potential endorsements could play a role here as well, especially for a player with this much star quality (and a massive built-in following).
It is likely that Doncic's camp will have their own preferences for where they'd like to see him end up, and it's Duffy's job to explore the possibilities of getting him to one of those destinations if he can. I do not expect much, if any, of these private conversations to leak to the media unless Doncic's camp feels they need to turn the screws a bit, because that could hurt their chances of getting a deal done. I doubt Doncic himself has been a part of any of these kinds of talks, as he probably doesn't know all that much about the inner workings of the NBA landscape, as ESPN's Mina Kimes outlined last month.
There is still plenty of time for all of these things to play out, most likely as we get closer to June 21. There's nothing stopping an NBA team from drafting Doncic, even if he makes it clear he's uninterested. There's a lot of money riding on him coming over as soon as possible.
Why the concern, and is it legitimate?
Pelton: OK, let's home in on why Doncic may have dropped on draft boards. What are scouts seeing -- or not seeing -- that has them concerned?
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Givony: Prior to being named MVP as Real Madrid won the Final Four this past weekend, Doncic's apex as a prospect was last September, when he helped Slovenia win the European championship and had a number of extremely encouraging games against the likes of France, Spain and Latvia. Doncic had strong performances against established NBA players, which helped him reclaim the No. 1 spot in our mock draft.
The memories from those performances may be fading, replaced by the not-quite-as-impressive version of Doncic we've seen the past four months in which he has struggled with his jump shot, gotten noticeably heavier and had a more difficult time creating quality shots for himself and others with his just-decent first step.
We've talked about the ridiculous number of games Doncic has played over the past 18 months -- the equivalent of almost two full NBA seasons in that span, handling the ball and being asked to create a huge amount of offense for his team every time out, and I really think that has caught up with him. He looked more athletic to me in September. European basketball is great in many areas, but making sure players are on the right diet and strength and conditioning program is not one of them. Plus, Doncic's affinity for junk food and the Madrid nightlife aren't a great combination here.
Doncic's scoring efficiency has fallen off since the calendar turned to 2018, which is when he has been most heavily scouted by teams that were projected to be picking in his draft range. His skeptics in NBA circles have gotten louder and louder. Virtually the entire NBA sent decision-makers out in droves to watch Real Madrid in the Euroleague playoffs in April, and Doncic had three of his worst games of the season in the first three contests, shooting just 5-of-20 from the field.
I think the sheer amount of hype that Doncic has (rightfully) generated with his stellar play may have caused a bit of a backlash among scouts. People have gone to his games expecting to see some type of European LeBron James-type figure. When he has looked like a 19-year-old, scouts have tended not to grade him on a curve. I think it's easy to forget at times how much stronger the Euroleague is than college basketball, and in turn how amazing what he's doing really is.
Pelton: What you are describing seems like a case of excessive nitpicking. After all, Doncic still was chosen as the Euroleague MVP, becoming the youngest player ever so honored.
After translating Euroleague production to its NBA equivalent based on players who have gone back-and-forth between the leagues over the past three seasons, I rated Doncic as the second-most valuable player in the league, just a hair behind former NBA guard Nick Calathes, who's almost exactly a decade older.
While Doncic's shooting percentages may have dropped since the new year (51 percent on 2s, 30 percent on 3s), his ability to get to the free throw line 8.3 times per 36 minutes has helped him buoy his efficiency. So he still posted a solid .565 true shooting percentage in that span.
To what extent do you think the concerns expressed by scouts are valid? If Doncic disappoints as an NBA player, what do you think will be the likely explanation?
Givony: Yes, nitpicking might be the right way to look at it.
In discussions about Doncic over the past month or two, some scouts have told me they believe they whiffed in their evaluation of Jayson Tatum -- and think of Doncic as a comparable case to try to learn from. Looking back, they question why they felt Tatum was not athletic enough, not a good enough shooter, wasn't consistent defensively, didn't have huge upside to grow into, and played too much of an inefficient iso-heavy style of basketball to be a star in the NBA.
In short, he was nitpicked after being considered the No. 1 prospect in the draft early on. Is the same thing happening with Doncic?
It's funny that you talk about his ability to draw free throws, because that's one of the things some scouts say they worry the most about with him: Whether he'll be able to live at the line in the NBA as much as he does in Europe. His critics believe Doncic gets James Harden-esque superstar treatment in Europe because of his golden boy stature and wonder if his average first step -- and his struggles getting by opponents in one-on-one situations -- will make it difficult to find the same results in the NBA.
It's important to note that I don't agree with these assessments. When a player his age has been as good as Doncic has in every setting, it's easy to expect him to continue to be really, really good in the NBA. Guys like him find a way, especially once they start to develop physically. So, like you, I would take Doncic No. 1. He's just too productive, too skilled, too smart and too good a fit in the modern game to pass up. I'll take my chances on a 6-foot-8, 230-pound point guard with a prodigious feel for the game every time.
But I understand why Americans (at every level of basketball) continue to question European players and whether their games translate. There's an inherent bias that is difficult to overcome. Fairly or not, Doncic will be a fascinating test case who will shape how future international prospects are judged.
Pelton: Some skepticism about Doncic sustaining his free throw rate is surely warranted.
Players who come from the Euroleague to the NBA see their free throw rate decline nearly 30 percent on average. Still, his 2017-18 Euroleague free throw rate would translate into one far better than average for an NBA perimeter player, assuming he's not benefiting from favoritism.
Where could he land?
Pelton: Let's wrap by asking which teams might benefit from Doncic dropping, and how they should react.
You mentioned the Mavericks, who are picking fifth. I've also felt Doncic would be a great fit for the Memphis Grizzlies, who are picking fourth and are more concerned with immediate contributions than most teams picking in the high lottery.
Would you let things play out if you were one of those teams, or try to move up a couple of picks to ensure a chance at Doncic? And is there another team with eyes for Doncic that might look to move up?
Givony: Doncic would be a home run for the Grizzlies, as he is without a doubt the player in this draft most equipped to help them return to respectability quickly. I actually had them selecting him with the No. 1 pick in our different mock lottery scenarios, had they moved up rather than falling two spots.
Memphis GM Chris Wallace was one of the NBA decision-makers in Athens a month ago watching Real Madrid's road games in the Euroleague playoffs, where Doncic struggled badly (a combined 2-for-8 from the field with four assists and four turnovers in the two games). Some NBA observers speculate that might have led to the Grizzlies not sending anyone other than their international scout (who is based in Italy) to the Euroleague Final Four. But I would be surprised if they'd allow themselves to be swayed that heavily by a pair of bad games, especially considering how natural a fit Doncic is on their current roster. How interested Doncic might be in playing for the Grizzlies (especially seeing Dallas right behind them at No. 5) is another story altogether.
We talked about the Mavs already. I could see them (or another team) trying to jump ahead of Memphis. Would they put a future first-rounder on the table for the right to move up two spots to No. 3? It's plausible, though the word around the NBA is that the Atlanta Hawks covet Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marvin Bagley III. Would either of those guys be there at No. 5 if Atlanta moved down?
The Kings are also worth monitoring. They were reportedly one of the teams that were highest on Michael Porter Jr. before they moved up from No. 7 to No. 2 in the lottery. Would they look to slide down a few spots to take Porter and pick up another asset in the process? They don't have a draft pick in either round in 2019 at the moment, which has to be a little scary considering how far away they are from contending for a playoff spot.
5/25/2018 11:56 AM LAST EDITED: 5/25/2018 11:59 AM