codeunknown wrote:fishmike wrote:BigDaddyG wrote:fishmike wrote:Marv wrote:interesting that some of you would take a pg. you don't think that frank and trey can hold that down going forward? i'm thinking the best front court player available. Give everyone a chance to develop together this year awaiting kp's return and then see what we need from there.
also its the PGs people are looking at. Tiny guys. I totally agree... Trey Burke was a lottery pick a couple years ago. He's 25 now. He dropped 42/12. He's played GREAT. He never turns the ball over. Adding Sexton or Trea Young to that just muddies the water for players who are very small for NBA prospects. I get you focus on BPA and avoid drafting by need in the NBA, except when all things are equal you take the position of need. We need frontcourt guys.
I like coming back with THjr, Dotson, Burke, Baker, Lee, Mudiay and Frank. That is 7 guys competing for minutes at the 1/2... Lee is old. All the other guys are 25 and under. We are going to add Trea Young who weighs like 155 lbs and has JR Smith's shot selection when he was a high school jr? Not a fan of that but we have drafted well and I like the young guys we have added so lets see.
This process is still too early to lock in on anyone player or strategy. Guys will move up and down a team's draft board before everything is said and done. I agree that we need front court help first, but what happens if the guys who make sense for us like Carter or Mikal go before we pick? I might want to draft down. But if Trae or Sexton kill it in workouts then I can understand it if we pick them. It would make more sense than reaching for a Kevin Knox. If Trey blows up, it might make sense to trade him and go with a younger backcourt. I'd like a young big from this class, but I might not feel pressured to get one this year if Kanter opts in.
disagree on the bold. Perry/Mills have said they are going to focus on longer, more athletic defensive players. There is a type to look at and a type to avoid. Tiny PGs that are smaller and lighter than everyone in the NBA go against that. Also its a position we have a lot of bodies in. Steph Curry's shooting was unprecedented when he was drafted, and he still fell for size/athleticism concerns. Trea Young is nothing like the shooter Curry was in college. I am not sure what he could do in a workout that would have me taking him over others like Carter, Bridges, Knox, SGA, guys with 2-way NBA upside.
While I agree generally with the bold, I think the lines you draw are are too rigid. If Perry and his staff are planning on algorithmically just taking long, athletic players who play defense, I would want him fired on the spot. What they need to be able to do is be the first to identify better predictive variables and excel at contextual analysis.
You've claimed that Trae is nothing like the shooter Steph is/was. I've given you the numbers before and your take seems hyperbolic. Trae shot 86.1% from the line to Steph's 87.6% during year 3 when he finally managed similar volume to Trae. Steph shot 85.5% in year 1. Steph shot 38.7% from 3 in his 3rd year of college, when managing comparable volume to Trae; Trae shot 36%. You can argue Trae is not as good of a shooter but there is still a ton of contextual uncertainty, and "nothing like Steph" is just conjecture. Balance it with the fact that Trae is noticeably quicker than Steph with superior age-matched ball handling and I think your selling him short, so to speak.
I'm also not on board with all the players you're suggesting will end up "2-way." SGA may well be deficient offensively at the NBA level. I don't see enough offensive upside there. Bridges and Carter I like, in that order. Knox may bust on both ends of the floor, and I like him the least, except Sexton who I won't even meaningfully consider. Its hard to predict, but it seems crazy to say that Young is disqualified relative to the above group because he is small. If 2-way upside is the ultimate consideration, why not Lonnie Walker? He's got more upside that any of the guys you've listed.
I have nothing against Walker. Kyrie Thomas is another dark horse that could be the next Donovan Mitchell.
I am selling Trea Young short? I dont think I am. He's a fantastic college player. The red flags and developmental challenges ahead are not worth the gamble. They are monumental starting simply with precedent. What is the model of success for a player like this?
As for comparing Steph and Trea you are comparing the strength of a dozen or so amazing games from Young vs. the worst shooting year Curry had (but otherwise the most successful). Young's college team was not very good, and Young's games were wildly inconsistent. I dont see the match. I see the sell, but I am not buying. That is just me.
You are right about SGA... he may lack the offensive upside. That is for the Knick scouts to work on. But at least SGA doesnt have physical limitations right out of the gate. Trea Young will always be defensive liability. Look at his frame... how much weight do you think he can put on? He's 160-170 right now.
If I was picking very late lottery/mid first round I would be more open to Young. You figure if your 15th pick becomes a good scorer off the bench and backup P fine. Obviously Young has more upside than that.
For me its pretty simple...
but it seems crazy to say that Young is disqualified relative to the above group because he is small
Why? This is the NBA. There are incredibly few small players and fewer successful ones. Its like slow, or fat, or stupid. I mean being small is about as tough an obstacle to overcome.
I dont disagree with you on the guys you mentioned. Knox might bust on both sides. Hopefully Bridges or Carter are available (lukewarm on Carter also). We will see.
Also while I am generally a believer in taking the BPA how do you take a guy like Young when you have Burke in the mix. I mean for that to happen Young has to really establish himself as a clear tier above the other guys available at the same spot. Burke is 25. He gave us 12/5 shooting over 50%. He dropped 42/12 with only 2 TOs. Burke takes amazing care of the ball. Young is a TO machine.
There are a 100 reason why Young is a wasted lottery pick for the Knicks. Some like him. I see much more hype than substance.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
