BRIGGS wrote:Im more impressed by how many rookies are simply playing well. You dont even have guys like Jordan Bell Dillon Brooks D Bacon even listed and you may not have the best rookie on the list--Kuzma. There are many guys playing well.
It's a function of the current system and it's not good for the long term of the NBA.
You have max paid guys, and guys who are basically going to get the Super Max extensions. In some cases, the guy is a true franchise player. In other cases, a team will just need a guy to market around to keep tickets selling and to keep courtside seats sold and keep local advertising/number of national broadcasts level.
You have the trend of overloaded teams, even to the point of guys who could get the max taking a discount to get on a team more likely to win.
You have grossly overpaid guys, because teams with front offices just trying to save their jobs will have to try to do something, even if it's a bad long range decision.
Then you have the smallest class - Middle class players. Guys on their second contracts, who should be making about market scale for their production, but have become relative bargains because they drift in a sea of max guys and overpaid guys ( usually through positional value)
The net effect of this will be top heavy teams, and top heavy conferences. Meaning more playoff blowout sweeps, fewer actual playoff games, angry networks, and a toxic cycle of reduction of the cap and revenue in general.
Rookies are getting more burn now, more than ever, because they operate as COST CERTAINTY in a flawed and broken market structure. Many are on losing teams who have nothing else, so they get high usage. And others are on winning teams, where they can fit into a smaller role, focusing on their strengths for now, and the synergy in place is helping their current production.
Long term, the bubble has to pop here. Top heavy contracts are going to kill this game. The Jrue Holiday contract was really ugly. The team was backed into a corner ( to be fair, they backed themselves into it) and made the only decision the market had left for them, take back an overpaid and injured guy because of the relative other options, limited ones, out there. Shortening the deals doesn't help when the AAV spikes are climbing to get a reduction in overall years. What it will create are compromise "Challenge Trades" where a top heavy deal gone to crap, will be shipped for another top heavy deal gone to crap. The cap choking effect won't change though, just a couple of jerseys.
It's nice to see rookies do well, but it is a byproduct of a larger systematic dysfunction.
Widespread use of non-guaranteed contracts must become the norm. The league needs to shed the soft cap and become hard capped. It's a players league and frankly most of them are plain too stupid to understand how to handle that responsibly. When I was in the NFL, I can't even begin to imagine empowering the player corps there. Not everyone was dumb, but there sure was enough dumb to sink the league if you put car keys in the hands of children. It sucks to say the best overall system is one that reduces players to cannon fodder, but the deep end opposite effect is too brutal to the game itself. People anywhere, become a bunch of children, once you give them too much power. NGCs and a hard cap at least has a check and balance effect once you introduce Signing Bonuses and making those actual cap hit that spread out over the life of the entire contract.
Good to see young guys doing well. Hope Dotson and FrankN can join that party. But the NBA is headed down an ugly road here.