Allanfan20 wrote:

franco12 wrote:

Allanfan20 wrote:If the defense wasn’t so terrible in the pre-season, I would be more optimistic. Unfortunately though, I am going with 22 wins. I’ll be more than thrilled to eat crow and my own dirty socks if I am wrong no matter how wrong.

will you be happy if we win 12 games?

I mean, I doubt we'll be that bad. But with this group, you never know.

No, I actually want them to have a good season and I actually see value in them making the playoffs this coming particular season, even if they lose. The young guys, KP especially, need to gain the experience of having a winning season. I think there is more value in that than a good draft oick, unless you are getting a super-duper-star.

I’m just worried about our health and defense and I’m not convinced that KP is ready to be the leader /top guy of the team.

I get that with losing and how that can hurt development. It's the will to win over talent sometimes. That is what made Ewing such a player.

But, I also think we're short a mega talent and a top three pick this year could really set us up for having a real foundation to build from moving forward.

Allanfan20 wrote:I get that but you have to remember nothing is guaranteed, including winning and including the top pick. If Kristaps and Frankie are going to be part of our core, I really think it’s in our and their best interest to learn how to win. If that doesn’t happen then yes, I would rather win 12 games and get the 1st pick if possible. I guess we will see. I just think it’s that important to get those two to learn the best habits possible before the bad ones really start to sink in.

The practical question has to be answered is, if KP and Ntilikina is part of "the core", who is the rest of "the core" where the coming from?

Do these Knicks have the raw ingredients to be a top NBA team?

Or will they still need to add significant levels of talent later on, and if so, how?

franco12 wrote:

Allanfan20 wrote:If the defense wasn’t so terrible in the pre-season, I would be more optimistic. Unfortunately though, I am going with 22 wins. I’ll be more than thrilled to eat crow and my own dirty socks if I am wrong no matter how wrong.

will you be happy if we win 12 games?

I mean, I doubt we'll be that bad. But with this group, you never know.

As bizarre as it sounds, and as counter intuitive it may appear on the surface, I still believe Ryan Anderson and picks would have been a better overall package in deal compared to Kanter/McDermott. Anderson is a zero on defense granted. And he can only play PF, Stretch 4 and that's it. But he's elite at what he does well. He spaces the floor and with a little daylight, can bomb other teams into submission. Yes, his contract is a year longer than Kanters ( I really don't see Kanter opting out....) but he creates less of a conflict with Zinger and Hernangomez on the roster.

meloshouldgo wrote:

TripleThreat wrote:

franco12 wrote:

Allanfan20 wrote:If the defense wasn’t so terrible in the pre-season, I would be more optimistic. Unfortunately though, I am going with 22 wins. I’ll be more than thrilled to eat crow and my own dirty socks if I am wrong no matter how wrong.

will you be happy if we win 12 games?

I mean, I doubt we'll be that bad. But with this group, you never know.

As bizarre as it sounds, and as counter intuitive it may appear on the surface, I still believe Ryan Anderson and picks would have been a better overall package in deal compared to Kanter/McDermott. Anderson is a zero on defense granted. And he can only play PF, Stretch 4 and that's it. But he's elite at what he does well. He spaces the floor and with a little daylight, can bomb other teams into submission. Yes, his contract is a year longer than Kanters ( I really don't see Kanter opting out....) but he creates less of a conflict with Zinger and Hernangomez on the roster.

I agree. I think he was better fit

Ryan was the only rotational player you were getting back, he's also not the most durable, and just as one dimensional as they come. To have 2 suspect players (noah and anderson) a combine 40 mill(almost half the cap) for 3 yrs. Plus he plays KP's position..wow...that would have been a boneheaded move

That had Isaiah written all over it

Chandler wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:

TripleThreat wrote:

franco12 wrote:

Allanfan20 wrote:If the defense wasn’t so terrible in the pre-season, I would be more optimistic. Unfortunately though, I am going with 22 wins. I’ll be more than thrilled to eat crow and my own dirty socks if I am wrong no matter how wrong.

will you be happy if we win 12 games?

I mean, I doubt we'll be that bad. But with this group, you never know.

As bizarre as it sounds, and as counter intuitive it may appear on the surface, I still believe Ryan Anderson and picks would have been a better overall package in deal compared to Kanter/McDermott. Anderson is a zero on defense granted. And he can only play PF, Stretch 4 and that's it. But he's elite at what he does well. He spaces the floor and with a little daylight, can bomb other teams into submission. Yes, his contract is a year longer than Kanters ( I really don't see Kanter opting out....) but he creates less of a conflict with Zinger and Hernangomez on the roster.

I agree. I think he was better fit

I get the sentiment but IMO too much overlap with KP, and we'd be stuck with Anderson (is my fear)

I'm more intrigued by Kanter/McDermott. Kanter has no D, but you also can't guard him with a smurf. It depends how he's used. If he's abused on D, we need to make sure to punish the opponent on the other end posting him up

I also think Kanter in particular or one of the other bigs will be more moveable if needed

And conversely, WhoTF was going to trade with us for Ryan Anderson and that great contract? He would be almost as unmovable as Noah.

I am curious because I see the Knicks as an improved team from the year before, but I certainly could be wrong.

Knicks top 10 leaders in total minutes played last year:
Melo
Lee
KP
Rose
Holiday
Jennings
Willy
KOQ
Kuz
Noah

So the big question is where does Melo’s production come from? Simple answer is Tim Hardaway.
Last year Melo had a TS% of .535 vs. .568 from Hardaway. Timmy was more efficient. Melo had a WS/48 of .089. Timmy’s was .107
We know last year from the tracking stats that Melo’s defense was among the league’s worst. We also know from advanced stats (NBA.com) that only one player took more contested shots than Melo. Hofstra and jrod will make Lin jokes and files this under useless Melo hate, but the reality is, on paper when looking at last year the Knicks scoring will take an uptick by replacing Melo with Timmy.

Next up the guards:
Rose/Holiday/Jennings are replaced by Sessions/Dotson/Frank. Despite his poor advanced stats I think losing Rose’s production hurts early, but yields better results later. Rose was reasonably durable and his 18ppg on 47% shooting will be missed. How much? We will see. Our defense at PG was terrible last year. It remains to be seen if Baker/Frank play a real role in improving that. Seeing is believing.

Bigs:
Basically the same group as last year, + Kanter and with Willy/KP having another year under their best. There is a glut, make no mistake. However Kanter’s scoring can’t be ignored. He will have some role and despite his defensive woes his scoring and rebounding make him an easy + player.

Coaching: Seeing is believing here as well. There is depth to this team, even though much of it may be mediocre. There should still be some options for this coach. Key is developing young players first, but there is NBA talent on this roster.

My take: 36 wins. (+5 win improvement).

Obviously many things can happen that could make the Knicks worse or better than 36 wins. However the defense should be better. The best player on the roster (Melo) did not have a good year and was near career lows in most categories. Will Hardaway be as good a player as Melo? Probably not. Can he play as well as Melo did last year? I am pretty sure he can yes. Will swapping Melo/Rose/Jennings/Holiday with THjr/Frank/Dotson/Beas translate to more wins? We will see. I think they improve… not by much, but a tick.