martin wrote:
No team in the NBA, IMHO, can beat a HEALTHY Golden State next year. It's just not possible given that much firepower. The Warriors MIGHT be able to sustain one major injury ( as long as it's not Draymond Green) and still contend and win a ring.
What I suspect Morey and other teams are doing is hedging on the possibility that the Warriors sustain a major injury at some point, and with a little luck and a little timing, push through and possibly win the West. Once you win the West, I'm not sure any Eastern team can truly hold up ( the Cavs are really a poorly constructed team)
A bought out Melo signing for the veteran minimum to Houston, plus all of their current roster, really gives them the most firepower to try to contend. Yes, even keeping Ryan Anderson on the roster.
Melo to the Rockets is a LUXURY. Can he help? Yes. Is he essential? No. What he mostly does is offer someone who can create their own shot when Harden is off the floor. But Melo can't consistently create his own shot at will anymore.
Would the Knicks buy out Melo? As the league landscape and marketplace starts to shake out as the season goes along, the key factor is going to be how many teams are going to be cap locked next offseason. Only 79 of 105 possible playoff games were played this last post season. With the league shifting to a top heavy type format, there will be fewer extended series. The couple of years with a cap jump without a smoothing scale applied means lots of teams will be in the tax, lots will have bad contracts, and disposable cap space will become more valuable.
Trading for Melo cap locks the Rockets roster for the next two seasons.
My guess is one of the factors for Morey to push for a Melo trade is any buyout will force Melo into 48 hour league waivers first. It's normally a formality that impacts very few players but Melo is a different case. A fringe team, Team X, might hedge on Melo NOT opting in, trying to get that last four year deal, and thus any commitment would just be for the rest of this season. He boosts some of the marketing and ticket sales and it's a short term commitment.
The other issue with Gordon and Ariza, and even Anderson to some degree, is they have rapport and time in that system. That's no small issue. The team knows what Ariza can and can't do, and where he will be and why. Melo becomes a wild card and it opens up some strange chemistry questions. Melo does not move well off the ball. He doesn't defend. He is pretty lethal in transition ( when he bothers to care) but this is not typical playoff style basketball. That outright run and gun might work in the regular season, but with the playoffs, as rotations shorten and each possession becomes more critical, you need fundamental team basketball to win.
Ryan Anderson is a bad contract. But he's the least problematic of most of the bad contracts out there ( Deng, Asik, Plumlee, Knight, etc) Lots of guys here are looking for Win/Lose and that's just not possible given the logistics. This is Lose More/Lose Less. The Knicks have to come to terms that the best course might be to Lose Less. Anderson is overpaid, he's not useless. Bargs was overpaid and useless. This is much different.
Durant has been hurt before in the playoffs, if he goes down again and they manage to keep Gordon, Ariza and Capella they will have a good shot. Thats not counting vet min players who may sign on. They also have no state tax so they gain an advantage on players who want to latch on.
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