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True Hoop Podcast: The Good Bad and the Knicks (Windhorst, Begley, and Bontemps)
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nixluva
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8/27/2016  12:48 PM
StarksEwing1 wrote:
nixluva wrote:
StarksEwing1 wrote:
CrushAlot wrote:
StarksEwing1 wrote:
nixluva wrote:
NardDogNation wrote:
EnySpree wrote:I listened to the first few minutes then deleted it. I don't want to hear two douche bags making fun of Knicks fans and calling Derek Rose a d league player.

So what you mean to say is that you are adverse to the truth?


How the F is it true that what those guys were saying was "the truth"? A lot of what those guys said was just their opinion. When talking about what they think the Knicks will do in the future that most certainly is the case. Sure if they stated statistical facts from last season then that's one thing but anything about what the team will do this coming season is just their conjecture like anyone else.

Also there is very clearly a certain bias amongst many media guys. That's just how it is. They're down on the team but that doesn't mean this current roster won't play well this season. Heck a lot of these guys aren't even making educated guesses. They're just going on their feelings about specific players. So if they don't like Rose or Melo that colors their opinion of the team but it's not based on any deep observation about how the individual players will fit together playing under Hornacek. When you don't even mention Jennings or Hornacek's style of coaching it's hard to take seriously.

They agreed that the Wizards and Hornets were going to be better than the Knicks. They split on whether the Knicks were better than the Bucks. Begley said the Knicks were gonna be better but one of the guys saying no definitively and another saying it was a toss up. They said the Pacers would be better than the Knicks even tho Bontemps said he didn't like the Pacers and felt they would not make the playoffs.

They joked that the Sixers might be better than the Knicks. They agreed that the Hawks would be better. They gave the Heat the nod over the Knicks if Bosh plays. They split on whether the Knicks were better than the Bulls but were reluctant to really give the Knicks the nod. Begley said the Knicks were gonna be better than the Magic, Bontemps says the Magic will be better but I think Windhorst felt the Knicks, Bucks, Magic and Pacers would be in a bunch around 9-13th.

They love KP and feel he'll get better but complained that Rose and Melo will stunt him. They ripped the overall defense of the team, especially if Noah isn't healthy. They only gave Lee any credit for his D. They laughed at fans for thinking the team could win 50 games or get to the ECF's. They felt the pieces don't fit and that they're old and broke down. They pretty much agreed the Knicks would finish around 13th.

They mentioned some love for Hornacek but questioned what kind of autonomy he would have. They said he came in as a weak head coach and compared him with Thibs who they said is strong and Walton. They feel cuz he had to take on Rambis and use the Triangle that he's in a weak position.

i thought it was kinda fair. I dont agree with everything they said but it wasnt outrageous. Lets be honest if things were always as great as you make it seem then we should have been winning 60 games every year
What did you think was fair? I thought Bontempts presented as a guy that just hated the Knicks. I didn't think he backed up any of his points. Windhorst was much more soft spoken but I totally disagreed about his points about Hornacek and I thought it almost seemed like he was reaching to find common ground with the guys that were so negative.
its tough to be too positive when you win 49 games in 2 years. Like i always say if you want the accolades then you gotta win

This is what pisses me off. You can't lump the last 2 years or the last 15 years together with this year's roster. This roster is mostly new!!! So IMO if you are coming into your evaluation based off of the previous 2 years, you're already off base. We didn't have Hornacke, Rose, Lee, Noah or Jennings last year and I think when media drag the past into this it makes no sense unless we brought back the exact same roster or close to it.

New coach in Jeff Hornacek. He's bringing a new approach to the Triangle with more spacing, uptempo and more PnR.
New guards in Rose, Jennings, Holiday and possibly Randle and Baker. They bring WAY more scoring and breakdown ability.
New bigs in Noah, Willy, Ndour, Kuz and possibly Plumlee.

I see mostly upgrades up and down the roster. IMO the Knicks fans that are wallowing in fear and doubt are simply not taking a fresh look at this roster. I take a fresh look every year and regardless of how the season pans out I am not basing my feelings on the past teams, which in this case have very little in common. It's different if we're talking about the same core guys but we're not in this case with the exception of our best players Melo and KP. The only good player we lost was RoLo. Everyone else was relatively replaceable.

So if you are giving you assessment please don't bring up the past Knicks teams as if it really has any bearing on this current roster's potential. It's OK to compare in terms of team makeup but not to bring the problems or failures of the past teams and put that on this team. The Media loves to bring up the past Knicks failures when assessing the new team.

Jesus Christ dude im not saying the knicks are gonna suck. In fact i predicted 42-45 wins in previous posts. My point was that the media goes by recent history. I dont always agree with what they say.

This seems to happen often, but my response isn't just in response to you but to the Media that are the subject of the thread. So i'm not saying that you are saying the Knicks are gonna suck. I'm referring to the Media guys who are saying the Knicks are gonna suck. It's much clearer in my head that it came across in my writing.

Often these guys are transferring their opinions of the team based on the past and they aren't looking deeply enough at the current situation. This roster is very much a group with a lot of close ties to each other and their spirit is high. You can see how they're working together super early and are genuinely excited about the coming season. They make note of Rose's poor season but didn't really dig into how much he improved as the season went along after his overcoming the impact of his Orbital Surgery. It's my contention that Rose is much better than his numbers might indicate because of his poor start. I don't believe that it was just a case of Rose being a diminished player but rather that he clearly was dealing with the effects of his injury.

The same could be said for Noah and Jennings. Noah was dealing with a lot the last couple of years and I think the extra time off due to the shoulder surgery could actually help his knee problems. Sometimes guys just keep pushing thru pain and not really allow their bodies enough time to fully recover and heal. So only playing 29 games may end up helping Noah is a way. Jennings is also a guy making the comeback from a serious injury that takes time. Rose, Noah and Jennings are another year removed from the leg surgeries they had and we could see them all progress in their rehab. It's often that 2nd year following a surgery when things come together. Of course the same could be true for Melo who is another year removed from his patella surgery. We'll see how this works for these guys.

AUTOADVERT
CrushAlot
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8/27/2016  1:02 PM
I think two of the most intriguing teams going into this season are the Knicks and the TWolves. I think they missed the boat on the Knicks. I also think putting Chicago ahead of the Knicks without any analysis behind the prediction is wrong. I think the bulls moved on from Rose because it wasn't working with two ball dominant guards and I thought they were going to build a roster that suited Hoiberg more. Now they have three ball dominant guards and only one is a reasonable outside shooter. I just don't think you dismiss that and say, 'better than the Knicks'. Also, Pelton's comments about the nets, that they should be better with a year of experience for Rondae Hollis Jefferson and improvement at the point with Lin. The Knicks have KP coming back and improved their point guard play as well.
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
StarksEwing1
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8/27/2016  1:55 PM
nixluva wrote:
StarksEwing1 wrote:
nixluva wrote:
StarksEwing1 wrote:
CrushAlot wrote:
StarksEwing1 wrote:
nixluva wrote:
NardDogNation wrote:
EnySpree wrote:I listened to the first few minutes then deleted it. I don't want to hear two douche bags making fun of Knicks fans and calling Derek Rose a d league player.

So what you mean to say is that you are adverse to the truth?


How the F is it true that what those guys were saying was "the truth"? A lot of what those guys said was just their opinion. When talking about what they think the Knicks will do in the future that most certainly is the case. Sure if they stated statistical facts from last season then that's one thing but anything about what the team will do this coming season is just their conjecture like anyone else.

Also there is very clearly a certain bias amongst many media guys. That's just how it is. They're down on the team but that doesn't mean this current roster won't play well this season. Heck a lot of these guys aren't even making educated guesses. They're just going on their feelings about specific players. So if they don't like Rose or Melo that colors their opinion of the team but it's not based on any deep observation about how the individual players will fit together playing under Hornacek. When you don't even mention Jennings or Hornacek's style of coaching it's hard to take seriously.

They agreed that the Wizards and Hornets were going to be better than the Knicks. They split on whether the Knicks were better than the Bucks. Begley said the Knicks were gonna be better but one of the guys saying no definitively and another saying it was a toss up. They said the Pacers would be better than the Knicks even tho Bontemps said he didn't like the Pacers and felt they would not make the playoffs.

They joked that the Sixers might be better than the Knicks. They agreed that the Hawks would be better. They gave the Heat the nod over the Knicks if Bosh plays. They split on whether the Knicks were better than the Bulls but were reluctant to really give the Knicks the nod. Begley said the Knicks were gonna be better than the Magic, Bontemps says the Magic will be better but I think Windhorst felt the Knicks, Bucks, Magic and Pacers would be in a bunch around 9-13th.

They love KP and feel he'll get better but complained that Rose and Melo will stunt him. They ripped the overall defense of the team, especially if Noah isn't healthy. They only gave Lee any credit for his D. They laughed at fans for thinking the team could win 50 games or get to the ECF's. They felt the pieces don't fit and that they're old and broke down. They pretty much agreed the Knicks would finish around 13th.

They mentioned some love for Hornacek but questioned what kind of autonomy he would have. They said he came in as a weak head coach and compared him with Thibs who they said is strong and Walton. They feel cuz he had to take on Rambis and use the Triangle that he's in a weak position.

i thought it was kinda fair. I dont agree with everything they said but it wasnt outrageous. Lets be honest if things were always as great as you make it seem then we should have been winning 60 games every year
What did you think was fair? I thought Bontempts presented as a guy that just hated the Knicks. I didn't think he backed up any of his points. Windhorst was much more soft spoken but I totally disagreed about his points about Hornacek and I thought it almost seemed like he was reaching to find common ground with the guys that were so negative.
its tough to be too positive when you win 49 games in 2 years. Like i always say if you want the accolades then you gotta win

This is what pisses me off. You can't lump the last 2 years or the last 15 years together with this year's roster. This roster is mostly new!!! So IMO if you are coming into your evaluation based off of the previous 2 years, you're already off base. We didn't have Hornacke, Rose, Lee, Noah or Jennings last year and I think when media drag the past into this it makes no sense unless we brought back the exact same roster or close to it.

New coach in Jeff Hornacek. He's bringing a new approach to the Triangle with more spacing, uptempo and more PnR.
New guards in Rose, Jennings, Holiday and possibly Randle and Baker. They bring WAY more scoring and breakdown ability.
New bigs in Noah, Willy, Ndour, Kuz and possibly Plumlee.

I see mostly upgrades up and down the roster. IMO the Knicks fans that are wallowing in fear and doubt are simply not taking a fresh look at this roster. I take a fresh look every year and regardless of how the season pans out I am not basing my feelings on the past teams, which in this case have very little in common. It's different if we're talking about the same core guys but we're not in this case with the exception of our best players Melo and KP. The only good player we lost was RoLo. Everyone else was relatively replaceable.

So if you are giving you assessment please don't bring up the past Knicks teams as if it really has any bearing on this current roster's potential. It's OK to compare in terms of team makeup but not to bring the problems or failures of the past teams and put that on this team. The Media loves to bring up the past Knicks failures when assessing the new team.

Jesus Christ dude im not saying the knicks are gonna suck. In fact i predicted 42-45 wins in previous posts. My point was that the media goes by recent history. I dont always agree with what they say.

This seems to happen often, but my response isn't just in response to you but to the Media that are the subject of the thread. So i'm not saying that you are saying the Knicks are gonna suck. I'm referring to the Media guys who are saying the Knicks are gonna suck. It's much clearer in my head that it came across in my writing.

Often these guys are transferring their opinions of the team based on the past and they aren't looking deeply enough at the current situation. This roster is very much a group with a lot of close ties to each other and their spirit is high. You can see how they're working together super early and are genuinely excited about the coming season. They make note of Rose's poor season but didn't really dig into how much he improved as the season went along after his overcoming the impact of his Orbital Surgery. It's my contention that Rose is much better than his numbers might indicate because of his poor start. I don't believe that it was just a case of Rose being a diminished player but rather that he clearly was dealing with the effects of his injury.

The same could be said for Noah and Jennings. Noah was dealing with a lot the last couple of years and I think the extra time off due to the shoulder surgery could actually help his knee problems. Sometimes guys just keep pushing thru pain and not really allow their bodies enough time to fully recover and heal. So only playing 29 games may end up helping Noah is a way. Jennings is also a guy making the comeback from a serious injury that takes time. Rose, Noah and Jennings are another year removed from the leg surgeries they had and we could see them all progress in their rehab. It's often that 2nd year following a surgery when things come together. Of course the same could be true for Melo who is another year removed from his patella surgery. We'll see how this works for these guys.

No problem i do the same thing sometimes. I actually consider myself a positive fan but i always try to be realistic as well for many reasons. Im excited for the season but at the same time im not ready to predict a deep playoff run quite yet. I feel a lot of things need to go right so hopefully it will
nixluva
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8/27/2016  3:51 PM
CrushAlot wrote:I think two of the most intriguing teams going into this season are the Knicks and the TWolves. I think they missed the boat on the Knicks. I also think putting Chicago ahead of the Knicks without any analysis behind the prediction is wrong. I think the bulls moved on from Rose because it wasn't working with two ball dominant guards and I thought they were going to build a roster that suited Hoiberg more. Now they have three ball dominant guards and only one is a reasonable outside shooter. I just don't think you dismiss that and say, 'better than the Knicks'. Also, Pelton's comments about the nets, that they should be better with a year of experience for Rondae Hollis Jefferson and improvement at the point with Lin. The Knicks have KP coming back and improved their point guard play as well.

They did mention that quite a few of the predictions were on the low side but 35 wins for the Knicks is a JOKE IMO. The thing of most interest to me is that this team has IMO upgraded the guard positions. In particular with regard to how Hornacek wants to play. The issues this team had at guard were holding the team back last year. It think the overall functionality at the guard spots will be much improved and help out Melo and KP a lot.
newyorknewyork
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8/27/2016  4:40 PM
This is an intriguing upcoming season regardless of the win loss record. Many intriguing players to follow. From Rose, Noah, Jennings recovery. Prospects like Willie, Mindus, Ndour. Prime vets like Thomas, Holiday, KOQ who all still have potential. The development of KP, and following the innovations of Hornacek.
https://vote.nba.com/en Vote for your Knicks.
callmened
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8/27/2016  8:10 PM
http://www.sbnation.com/2016/8/24/12553850/new-york-knicks-rumors-recap-podcast-nba-preview-2016

I think this is a more OBJECTIVE preview of the knicks. They talk about:
- how good KPorzingus could be (compared to KATowns, Nokic etc)
- Coach Hornecek and the Triangle offense
- the Rose, Jennings and Lee backcourt
- Noah vs Lopez - at center
but like the True Hoops Podcast: they don't have high expectations. They're in that middle tier in the east.

Knicks should be improved: win about 40 games and maybe sneak into the playoffs. Melo, Rose and even Noah will have some nice moments however this team should be about PORZINGUS. the sooner they make him the primary player, the better
CrushAlot
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8/27/2016  9:06 PM
callmened wrote:http://www.sbnation.com/2016/8/24/12553850/new-york-knicks-rumors-recap-podcast-nba-preview-2016

I think this is a more OBJECTIVE preview of the knicks. They talk about:
- how good KPorzingus could be (compared to KATowns, Nokic etc)
- Coach Hornecek and the Triangle offense
- the Rose, Jennings and Lee backcourt
- Noah vs Lopez - at center
but like the True Hoops Podcast: they don't have high expectations. They're in that middle tier in the east.

That seems a lot more reasonable. Thanks for posting the link. I will make sure to listen to it tomorrow.
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
arkrud
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8/27/2016  11:52 PM    LAST EDITED: 8/27/2016  11:54 PM
newyorknewyork wrote:This is an intriguing upcoming season regardless of the win loss record. Many intriguing players to follow. From Rose, Noah, Jennings recovery. Prospects like Willie, Mindus, Ndour. Prime vets like Thomas, Holiday, KOQ who all still have potential. The development of KP, and following the innovations of Hornacek.

Exactly.
The time for expectations is not there yet.
Team and fans should take it game by game.
This is new team, a new beginning. Anything can happened.
As per my long time observations of Nix predictions they need to be taken with a grain of salt.
He predicted great season last 15 years every year and was right only once.

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
nixluva
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8/28/2016  1:20 AM
arkrud wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:This is an intriguing upcoming season regardless of the win loss record. Many intriguing players to follow. From Rose, Noah, Jennings recovery. Prospects like Willie, Mindus, Ndour. Prime vets like Thomas, Holiday, KOQ who all still have potential. The development of KP, and following the innovations of Hornacek.

Exactly.
The time for expectations is not there yet.
Team and fans should take it game by game.
This is new team, a new beginning. Anything can happened.
As per my long time observations of Nix predictions they need to be taken with a grain of salt.
He predicted great season last 15 years every year and was right only once.

You know the truth is that most of the time my predictions have been in the 40's and only a few games higher than the average.

Contrary to what many think I have been in the mid 40's with most of my predictions. I only went crazy maybe 2 times. I don't live and die by season predictions so i'm not embarrassed to post as many as I can find and remember. We all know how much of a disaster the franchise has been the last 16 years so likely no one has a perfect prediction history unless you pretty much just stay negative and predict the worst every year, in which case you can act like a genius even if the Pros predicted a better record than the Knicks may have ended up with.


Year Nixluva Prediction Final Record
2007-08 46 Wins = 23-59

2008-09 No Prediction = 32-50

2009-10 40+ Wins = 29-53 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=32661&page=1

2010-11 46-36 = 42-40 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=23739&page=2

2011-12 46-20 = 36-30 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=40277&page=2

2012-13 55 Wins = 54-28 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43191

2013-14 56-23 = 37-45 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=45727&page=2

2014-15 46 to 50 Wins = 17-65 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=48408

2015-16 44 to 48 Wins = 32-50 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=52623&page=2

dk7th
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8/28/2016  9:05 AM
nixluva wrote:
arkrud wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:This is an intriguing upcoming season regardless of the win loss record. Many intriguing players to follow. From Rose, Noah, Jennings recovery. Prospects like Willie, Mindus, Ndour. Prime vets like Thomas, Holiday, KOQ who all still have potential. The development of KP, and following the innovations of Hornacek.

Exactly.
The time for expectations is not there yet.
Team and fans should take it game by game.
This is new team, a new beginning. Anything can happened.
As per my long time observations of Nix predictions they need to be taken with a grain of salt.
He predicted great season last 15 years every year and was right only once.

You know the truth is that most of the time my predictions have been in the 40's and only a few games higher than the average.

Contrary to what many think I have been in the mid 40's with most of my predictions. I only went crazy maybe 2 times. I don't live and die by season predictions so i'm not embarrassed to post as many as I can find and remember. We all know how much of a disaster the franchise has been the last 16 years so likely no one has a perfect prediction history unless you pretty much just stay negative and predict the worst every year, in which case you can act like a genius even if the Pros predicted a better record than the Knicks may have ended up with.


Year Nixluva Prediction Final Record
2007-08 46 Wins = 23-59

2008-09 No Prediction = 32-50

2009-10 40+ Wins = 29-53 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=32661&page=1

2010-11 46-36 = 42-40 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=23739&page=2

2011-12 46-20 = 36-30 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=40277&page=2

2012-13 55 Wins = 54-28 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43191

2013-14 56-23 = 37-45 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=45727&page=2

2014-15 46 to 50 Wins = 17-65 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=48408

2015-16 44 to 48 Wins = 32-50 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=52623&page=2

you got fairly close to very close 25% of the time, and when you were off, you were way way way off. because you have been so grossly inaccurate i understand your "not living and dying" by predictions.

however: you should care about your predictive ability since it is a reflection of an overall acumen for the subject in question. your inaccuracy is simply a reflection of your chronic ignoring or avoidance of the pertinent facts and statistics and going more from conjecture and hope.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
arkrud
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8/28/2016  9:13 AM    LAST EDITED: 8/28/2016  9:17 AM
nixluva wrote:
arkrud wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:This is an intriguing upcoming season regardless of the win loss record. Many intriguing players to follow. From Rose, Noah, Jennings recovery. Prospects like Willie, Mindus, Ndour. Prime vets like Thomas, Holiday, KOQ who all still have potential. The development of KP, and following the innovations of Hornacek.

Exactly.
The time for expectations is not there yet.
Team and fans should take it game by game.
This is new team, a new beginning. Anything can happened.
As per my long time observations of Nix predictions they need to be taken with a grain of salt.
He predicted great season last 15 years every year and was right only once.

You know the truth is that most of the time my predictions have been in the 40's and only a few games higher than the average.

Contrary to what many think I have been in the mid 40's with most of my predictions. I only went crazy maybe 2 times. I don't live and die by season predictions so i'm not embarrassed to post as many as I can find and remember. We all know how much of a disaster the franchise has been the last 16 years so likely no one has a perfect prediction history unless you pretty much just stay negative and predict the worst every year, in which case you can act like a genius even if the Pros predicted a better record than the Knicks may have ended up with.


Year Nixluva Prediction Final Record
2007-08 46 Wins = 23-59

2008-09 No Prediction = 32-50

2009-10 40+ Wins = 29-53 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=32661&page=1

2010-11 46-36 = 42-40 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=23739&page=2

2011-12 46-20 = 36-30 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=40277&page=2

2012-13 55 Wins = 54-28 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43191

2013-14 56-23 = 37-45 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=45727&page=2

2014-15 46 to 50 Wins = 17-65 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=48408

2015-16 44 to 48 Wins = 32-50 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=52623&page=2

Appreciating your honesty and love to the team but it was far too optimistic:
-23
n/a
-11
-4
-10
-1
-19
-29
-12
Which totals to -109 games in 8 seasons
This is average of 13.5 games per season over-evaluation. Huge amount of wins in NBA.
Remember Expectations kill joy

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
dk7th
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8/28/2016  9:45 AM
callmened wrote:http://www.sbnation.com/2016/8/24/12553850/new-york-knicks-rumors-recap-podcast-nba-preview-2016

I think this is a more OBJECTIVE preview of the knicks. They talk about:
- how good KPorzingus could be (compared to KATowns, Nokic etc)
- Coach Hornecek and the Triangle offense
- the Rose, Jennings and Lee backcourt
- Noah vs Lopez - at center
but like the True Hoops Podcast: they don't have high expectations. They're in that middle tier in the east.

ned this was a great find. i listened to it last night and these guys were comprehensive and on the money. too bad they had to muck it up with the off-topic dorkiness. still, this is what all knicks fans should listen to.

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
nixluva
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8/28/2016  2:14 PM
arkrud wrote:
nixluva wrote:
arkrud wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:This is an intriguing upcoming season regardless of the win loss record. Many intriguing players to follow. From Rose, Noah, Jennings recovery. Prospects like Willie, Mindus, Ndour. Prime vets like Thomas, Holiday, KOQ who all still have potential. The development of KP, and following the innovations of Hornacek.

Exactly.
The time for expectations is not there yet.
Team and fans should take it game by game.
This is new team, a new beginning. Anything can happened.
As per my long time observations of Nix predictions they need to be taken with a grain of salt.
He predicted great season last 15 years every year and was right only once.

You know the truth is that most of the time my predictions have been in the 40's and only a few games higher than the average.

Contrary to what many think I have been in the mid 40's with most of my predictions. I only went crazy maybe 2 times. I don't live and die by season predictions so i'm not embarrassed to post as many as I can find and remember. We all know how much of a disaster the franchise has been the last 16 years so likely no one has a perfect prediction history unless you pretty much just stay negative and predict the worst every year, in which case you can act like a genius even if the Pros predicted a better record than the Knicks may have ended up with.


Year Nixluva Prediction Final Record
2007-08 46 Wins = 23-59

2008-09 No Prediction = 32-50

2009-10 40+ Wins = 29-53 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=32661&page=1

2010-11 46-36 = 42-40 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=23739&page=2

2011-12 46-20 = 36-30 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=40277&page=2

2012-13 55 Wins = 54-28 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43191

2013-14 56-23 = 37-45 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=45727&page=2

2014-15 46 to 50 Wins = 17-65 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=48408

2015-16 44 to 48 Wins = 32-50 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=52623&page=2

Appreciating your honesty and love to the team but it was far too optimistic:
-23
n/a
-11
-4
-10
-1
-19
-29
-12
Which totals to -109 games in 8 seasons
This is average of 13.5 games per season over-evaluation. Huge amount of wins in NBA.
Remember Expectations kill joy


No i've already explained that I don't go for the middle ground I take a maximal approach to my predictions, so I already know that they are high. I look for what I think the talent, fit and gameplan suggest should be possible if they perform at their best. I'm not betting or expecting anyone to bet on my predictions so there's no need for me to mitigate my prediction with some kind of counterbalance as a betting line would. I don't factor in injury or historical dysfunction of the franchise.

IMO in many of these years the team has underachieved due not so much to the talent but the leadership of the franchise. Dolan on down had a very negative impact on the team. Often the type of players we had were in need of stronger leadership and due to the lack of that leadership the team underachieved relative to their talent. It's one of the reasons the 54 win team played well and then the next season the team underachieved. The same thing happened in the 17 win season before Phil rightfully blew it up. IMO Phil did the right thing in starting over. I think he's done the best he could this summer in bringing in leadership and players that can execute what his coach, Hornacek wants to implement.

arkrud
Posts: 32217
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Member: #995
USA
8/28/2016  4:20 PM
nixluva wrote:
arkrud wrote:
nixluva wrote:
arkrud wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:This is an intriguing upcoming season regardless of the win loss record. Many intriguing players to follow. From Rose, Noah, Jennings recovery. Prospects like Willie, Mindus, Ndour. Prime vets like Thomas, Holiday, KOQ who all still have potential. The development of KP, and following the innovations of Hornacek.

Exactly.
The time for expectations is not there yet.
Team and fans should take it game by game.
This is new team, a new beginning. Anything can happened.
As per my long time observations of Nix predictions they need to be taken with a grain of salt.
He predicted great season last 15 years every year and was right only once.

You know the truth is that most of the time my predictions have been in the 40's and only a few games higher than the average.

Contrary to what many think I have been in the mid 40's with most of my predictions. I only went crazy maybe 2 times. I don't live and die by season predictions so i'm not embarrassed to post as many as I can find and remember. We all know how much of a disaster the franchise has been the last 16 years so likely no one has a perfect prediction history unless you pretty much just stay negative and predict the worst every year, in which case you can act like a genius even if the Pros predicted a better record than the Knicks may have ended up with.


Year Nixluva Prediction Final Record
2007-08 46 Wins = 23-59

2008-09 No Prediction = 32-50

2009-10 40+ Wins = 29-53 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=32661&page=1

2010-11 46-36 = 42-40 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=23739&page=2

2011-12 46-20 = 36-30 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=40277&page=2

2012-13 55 Wins = 54-28 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43191

2013-14 56-23 = 37-45 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=45727&page=2

2014-15 46 to 50 Wins = 17-65 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=48408

2015-16 44 to 48 Wins = 32-50 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=52623&page=2

Appreciating your honesty and love to the team but it was far too optimistic:
-23
n/a
-11
-4
-10
-1
-19
-29
-12
Which totals to -109 games in 8 seasons
This is average of 13.5 games per season over-evaluation. Huge amount of wins in NBA.
Remember Expectations kill joy


No i've already explained that I don't go for the middle ground I take a maximal approach to my predictions, so I already know that they are high. I look for what I think the talent, fit and gameplan suggest should be possible if they perform at their best. I'm not betting or expecting anyone to bet on my predictions so there's no need for me to mitigate my prediction with some kind of counterbalance as a betting line would. I don't factor in injury or historical dysfunction of the franchise.

IMO in many of these years the team has underachieved due not so much to the talent but the leadership of the franchise. Dolan on down had a very negative impact on the team. Often the type of players we had were in need of stronger leadership and due to the lack of that leadership the team underachieved relative to their talent. It's one of the reasons the 54 win team played well and then the next season the team underachieved. The same thing happened in the 17 win season before Phil rightfully blew it up. IMO Phil did the right thing in starting over. I think he's done the best he could this summer in bringing in leadership and players that can execute what his coach, Hornacek wants to implement.

I hope for once you are predicting it right.
After so many misses you have to have a hit and team an fans deserve some break too.

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
nixluva
Posts: 56258
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 10/5/2004
Member: #758
USA
8/28/2016  4:42 PM
arkrud wrote:
nixluva wrote:
arkrud wrote:
nixluva wrote:
arkrud wrote:
newyorknewyork wrote:This is an intriguing upcoming season regardless of the win loss record. Many intriguing players to follow. From Rose, Noah, Jennings recovery. Prospects like Willie, Mindus, Ndour. Prime vets like Thomas, Holiday, KOQ who all still have potential. The development of KP, and following the innovations of Hornacek.

Exactly.
The time for expectations is not there yet.
Team and fans should take it game by game.
This is new team, a new beginning. Anything can happened.
As per my long time observations of Nix predictions they need to be taken with a grain of salt.
He predicted great season last 15 years every year and was right only once.

You know the truth is that most of the time my predictions have been in the 40's and only a few games higher than the average.

Contrary to what many think I have been in the mid 40's with most of my predictions. I only went crazy maybe 2 times. I don't live and die by season predictions so i'm not embarrassed to post as many as I can find and remember. We all know how much of a disaster the franchise has been the last 16 years so likely no one has a perfect prediction history unless you pretty much just stay negative and predict the worst every year, in which case you can act like a genius even if the Pros predicted a better record than the Knicks may have ended up with.


Year Nixluva Prediction Final Record
2007-08 46 Wins = 23-59

2008-09 No Prediction = 32-50

2009-10 40+ Wins = 29-53 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=32661&page=1

2010-11 46-36 = 42-40 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=23739&page=2

2011-12 46-20 = 36-30 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=40277&page=2

2012-13 55 Wins = 54-28 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=43191

2013-14 56-23 = 37-45 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=45727&page=2

2014-15 46 to 50 Wins = 17-65 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=48408

2015-16 44 to 48 Wins = 32-50 http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=52623&page=2

Appreciating your honesty and love to the team but it was far too optimistic:
-23
n/a
-11
-4
-10
-1
-19
-29
-12
Which totals to -109 games in 8 seasons
This is average of 13.5 games per season over-evaluation. Huge amount of wins in NBA.
Remember Expectations kill joy


No i've already explained that I don't go for the middle ground I take a maximal approach to my predictions, so I already know that they are high. I look for what I think the talent, fit and gameplan suggest should be possible if they perform at their best. I'm not betting or expecting anyone to bet on my predictions so there's no need for me to mitigate my prediction with some kind of counterbalance as a betting line would. I don't factor in injury or historical dysfunction of the franchise.

IMO in many of these years the team has underachieved due not so much to the talent but the leadership of the franchise. Dolan on down had a very negative impact on the team. Often the type of players we had were in need of stronger leadership and due to the lack of that leadership the team underachieved relative to their talent. It's one of the reasons the 54 win team played well and then the next season the team underachieved. The same thing happened in the 17 win season before Phil rightfully blew it up. IMO Phil did the right thing in starting over. I think he's done the best he could this summer in bringing in leadership and players that can execute what his coach, Hornacek wants to implement.

I hope for once you are predicting it right.
After so many misses you have to have a hit and team an fans deserve some break too.

It's not important whether i'm hitting or missing. It's more important that the team plays up to it's potential rather than far below it as has happened in the past. That 17 win team did not come in with that as a prediction for what they should achieve.

I think it's easy to jump on me for not getting the prediction right but let's take last year for instance. Last year the team was on pace to exceed Pro Predictions by a wide margin but due to injury they fell off that pace but still exceeded expectations. I don't feel I was wrong in believing the team could win 44-48 games. They only won 32 but that was above the pro predictions.

Year One of Phil Jackson’s New York Knicks presidency was, as the man himself said, a “project gone awry.” If Year Two doesn’t bring significant progress, the locals may become restless.

Jackson didn’t add any stars to the roster in free agency, just players he hopes can coalesce well around a healthy Carmelo Anthony, namesake of FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO player projection system. Will that be enough for the Knicks to sneak into the playoffs in the Eastern Conference?

Recent history indicates that the odds are against it.

The Knicks won a franchise-low 17 games in 2014-15. Since 1983-84, 31 teams have won 17 or fewer games.
Seventeen of those teams won 25 or fewer games the next season.

Will the Knicks be the 18th in that group? CARMELO thinks it’ll be close, projecting the Knicks to go 27-55:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-new-york-knicks-preview/
93BUICK
Posts: 22281
Alba Posts: 1
Joined: 10/6/2006
Member: #1175
USA
8/29/2016  8:15 AM
EnySpree wrote:I'm just tired of arguing about it. No games have been played yet it's ok to predict doom and gloom and bully knick fans all summer. Season can't stay soon enough

Where do we get to bet the over? I got a hundred bucks ready to go---

If you are still following the team and reading sites like this, there is nothing, short of your own demise, that is going to throw you off this train.
CrushAlot
Posts: 59764
Alba Posts: 0
Joined: 7/25/2003
Member: #452
USA
8/29/2016  1:14 PM
callmened wrote:http://www.sbnation.com/2016/8/24/12553850/new-york-knicks-rumors-recap-podcast-nba-preview-2016

I think this is a more OBJECTIVE preview of the knicks. They talk about:
- how good KPorzingus could be (compared to KATowns, Nokic etc)
- Coach Hornecek and the Triangle offense
- the Rose, Jennings and Lee backcourt
- Noah vs Lopez - at center
but like the True Hoops Podcast: they don't have high expectations. They're in that middle tier in the east.

Awesome podcast. To quote Amare, "Phenomenal."
I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
True Hoop Podcast: The Good Bad and the Knicks (Windhorst, Begley, and Bontemps)

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