mreinman wrote:Chandler wrote:mreinman wrote:Chandler wrote:mreinman wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:ChuckBuck wrote:Derozan really impressed me this series. Didn't think it was possible for a shooting guard in today's NBA to score back to back 32 point games efficiently without taking 3s.
yes but its a bit feast or famine with him especially since he can't shoot 3's.
He's not really that good at 2s either (in the last 3 years, .447 overall and .405 in the playoffs).
His efficiency comes from getting to the line and being a very good FT shooter.
This.^. It's not about the last two games. I've been raising his name all year
There's a lot to be said for a guy who continues to attack the rim. Not only does that yield FT (at least in part he regular season when whistles are actually blown) but the opponent gets in foul trouble w potentially enormous benefit from their being less aggressive on offense and defense late in the game. There's no good stat to capture that but it's real.
Also there's a lot to be said for midrange game when done right. Missing 3s can lead to long rebounds and fast breaks. Midrange and down low you have a better chance to establish your defense.
the bolded part is a very old school way of thinking that has pretty much been disproved and thrown out. The long rebound theory has been studied and teams actually have better chances at offensive rebounding 3's than 2's.
Also, teams shoot an average of 35% from 3 and barely 40% from mid to long 2's. The 5% diff is beyond negligible if one would attempt to make your above argument. The Effective Field Goal difference is huge.
i disagree. Even using your numbers you can see that there are more rebound opportunities with 3s than with 2s because there are more misses. And the issue is not just the amount but the kind: missed thress tend to yield long rebounds with the defense gathering them with momentum and off to the races. On top of that, if you play down low and draw fouls FTs negate that fast break opportunity
having said that, i am not a fan of long 2s and you barely 40% i suspect includes those shots. Scoring in the post is much higher than 40%
again, you are making assumptions about rebounds / long rebounds / rebound opps that are not correct or at least lacking data. There are extensive studies about what kind of threes lead to what kind of rebounds and who gets those rebounds. Search for "where do rebounds go", there is a good study that will come up.
We agree that long 2's are bad so that is good but as far as the post, I have no problem with post play as long as its efficient and does not stagnate the offense. Not throwing the ball to a guy like Shaq in the post would have been a crime! And kobe committed many of those crimes. Throwing the ball to a guy like Dwight Howard in the post does more harm than good.
i took your advice and checked. This article seemed decent. http://grantland.com/features/how-rebounds-work/
It said:
"Distance Matters
The idea that longer shots elicit longer rebounds is not new; it’s conventional basketball wisdom, and it’s supported by basic physics. Still, the tracking data enables us to drill down on this effect in much more detail. The tracking system enables us to visualize the distance effect like never before. Here we see that the average rebound distance grows along with shot distance"
In other words, long shots means long rebounds. It also said: "Last year, almost 80 percent of all NBA rebounds happened within eight feet of the hoop," meaning 20% of shots are 8 feet or longer -- guess where those atypically long rebounds came from -- not from FTs or shots in the post. Those 20% are the ones that can yield fast breaks against the defense.
ALso this is an interesting article. It shows where you might be more likely to get an offensive rebound, but you'll note in every situation the defense still has the advantage of getting the rebound -- hardly surprising since they tend to have much better inside position
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/charting_3_point_rebounds
So the net result is longer shots yield longer rebounds, with the defense more likely to get any of them. 20% at least will be 8 feet or more a way with an opportuntiy to turn that into a fast break
So while I know you're keen to criticize, I'm not sure what your point is or what it's based on. Are you arguing that shooting 3s is better for your team's defense and if so why? The data shows the opposite: it creates more rebounding opportunities (and rebounds) for the defense and a good percentage of those may yield fast break opportunities
So while I agree shooting 3s is important for your offense (e.g., 40% from 3, is better than 50% from 2), it's wrong to get hypnotized by this alone -- you need to consider what happens on the other 60 or 50% of misses and what kind of opportunities it creates
And more fundamentally I dont think whatever point youre trying to make has an effect on Demar's value. His biggest efficiency is driving to the basket and drawing fouls. An 80% FT shooter is worth 1.6 points per visit to the foul line (this doesn't assume an AND1 which makes things even better). In other words driving to the rim and getting fouled is better than 40% from three or 50% from two. Plus you get the opponent in foul trouble -- perhaps fouling them out or at least causing them to be more tenative on defense AND on offense again benefits to your team