Author | Poll |
Author | Thread |
yellowboy90
Posts: 33942 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 4/23/2011 Member: #3538 |
2/7/2016 9:55 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:I think Briggs is overestimating the value of these picks. Historically, only about 20% of guys drafted in the mid 20s go on to become solid nba starters based on 82games' analysis. We need to trade RoLo for about 5 of these late picks for it to be even. Even then, you have to realize that you're waiting a few years for the players to develop. If you have a good, 2 way 7 foot center, you're better off holding onto him and buying a couple of these picks. Isn't that an old article and are you sure their formula for rating players is not flawed? |
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Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
2/7/2016 10:50 AM
yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:I think Briggs is overestimating the value of these picks. Historically, only about 20% of guys drafted in the mid 20s go on to become solid nba starters based on 82games' analysis. We need to trade RoLo for about 5 of these late picks for it to be even. Even then, you have to realize that you're waiting a few years for the players to develop. If you have a good, 2 way 7 foot center, you're better off holding onto him and buying a couple of these picks. Old? Yes but I doubt the expected value of draft picks has changed significantly. Flawed? Every stat and every eyeball assessment is flawed to some extent. I haven't found (or recently searched for) other draft pick expected value ratings. I suspect this is better than just guessing how much a draft pick will produce. |
Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
2/7/2016 10:55 AM LAST EDITED: 2/7/2016 11:01 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:I think Briggs is overestimating the value of these picks. Historically, only about 20% of guys drafted in the mid 20s go on to become solid nba starters based on 82games' analysis. We need to trade RoLo for about 5 of these late picks for it to be even. Even then, you have to realize that you're waiting a few years for the players to develop. If you have a good, 2 way 7 foot center, you're better off holding onto him and buying a couple of these picks. I just did some more searching. This is also old but indicates the average 25th pick will earn 6.2 win shares in his first 4 seasons. Rolo in his past 4 seasons has 22.4 win shares. http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2740 You could say total win shares is confounded with minutes played but RoLo hasn't played a huge number of minutes. Either way, I think he'll kick the butts of most 25th picks in production. I'm going to take a guess that in a typical NBA draft, only 1 of the 10 guys drafted in the 20s will outproduce Rolo in win shares. Maybe another 1 or 2 come close and then 7 or 8 are below him. I'd rather just try to buy these picks. |
yellowboy90
Posts: 33942 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 4/23/2011 Member: #3538 |
2/7/2016 11:08 AM
Bonn1997 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:I think Briggs is overestimating the value of these picks. Historically, only about 20% of guys drafted in the mid 20s go on to become solid nba starters based on 82games' analysis. We need to trade RoLo for about 5 of these late picks for it to be even. Even then, you have to realize that you're waiting a few years for the players to develop. If you have a good, 2 way 7 foot center, you're better off holding onto him and buying a couple of these picks. I do not disagree with you on RoLo being better value than the 25th pick based on his production I was just wondering about the data you were using. Also, I wonder how much the value picks 25th or beyond has done lately? Maybe it just seems like more players have succeeded lately who were picked 25th or beyond? |
Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
2/7/2016 11:14 AM LAST EDITED: 2/7/2016 11:18 AM
yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:I think Briggs is overestimating the value of these picks. Historically, only about 20% of guys drafted in the mid 20s go on to become solid nba starters based on 82games' analysis. We need to trade RoLo for about 5 of these late picks for it to be even. Even then, you have to realize that you're waiting a few years for the players to develop. If you have a good, 2 way 7 foot center, you're better off holding onto him and buying a couple of these picks. That I don't know. You were right to ask about the data I cited. I'm guessing with the money saved from Rolo's salary, we just get another Aaron Afflalo. Other than RoLo, Phil has never added a starting caliber FA. We need to win to attract FAs. I think this trade is really bad. It would be interesting to see current production of NBA draft picks. I suspect little has changed and people just selectively focus on the one or two draft picks playing at a high level. |
BRIGGS
Posts: 53275 Alba Posts: 7 Joined: 7/30/2002 Member: #303 |
2/7/2016 11:40 AM
Valentine and felder would make you forget about rolo after 1 game
RIP Crushalot😞
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