CrushAlot wrote:dk7th wrote:Marcala12 wrote:dk7th wrote:being 5 games back, really 6 games back, in the loss column with 15 games left is not a hurdle that will be overcome.i see 5-10 for them, ideally 10-5. 10-5 puts them exactly where the schoene prediction model put them. maybe they end up going 7-8 which puts them at 34-48
even if the knick go 10-5 atlanta can go 7-10 and still get the 8th seed.
how accurate was the schone prediction model for the knicks last year troll?
how does this make me a troll. i don't know what the schoene model predicted the previous season. provide a jump and we can chat.
I'll help you guys out. Schoene predicted 45 wins for the knicks in 2012-13.
prediction models, i believe are based on statistical means and trends over time. therefore anything that exceeds the statistical mean in a positive way and at the same time bucks the trend in a positive way will yield a result that exceeds the win prediction.
do you understand this?
now as i have been saying, kidd's influence on the team and rasheed's influence played a huge role in the knicks achieving the record they did around 25-30 games in. when those two started to falter the knicks regressed to around .500 ball and performed like a .500 team in the playoffs.
another factor to their success was prigioni's eventual emergence later in the season-- i don't think the prediction model could have incorporated a rookie foreign player's influence on the team, but i may be wrong about that.
lastly, the team as a whole, including anthony, shot the three above expectations vis a vis statistical means and trends.
these are the main factors as to why they accumulated the inflated record during the jayvee season.
take away kidd and add bargani and you essentially have a rudderless and incoherent mess on your hands. and then there's the absolutely horrible proclamation by melo of wanting to test free agency that exacerbated the 37-win prediction further.
so how much should melo be offered to stay a knick? i say 12-13 million.
what do you say?
knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%