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Nalod
Posts: 54074
Alba Posts: 151
Joined: 12/24/2003
Member: #508
USA
2/6/2014  11:32 PM
THey are scared of the level of ignorance you bring before them.
Anger sells, don't buy!
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GustavBahler
Posts: 32933
Alba Posts: 15
Joined: 7/12/2010
Member: #3186

2/11/2014  9:57 PM
Who knows what will happen but I can't say this is a good omen....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11

I should know, because I quoted a number of this chart’s skeptics in a column I wrote in early December. Yet the market over the last two months has continued to more or less closely follow the 1928-29 pattern outlined in that two-months-ago chart. If this correlation continues, the market faces a particularly rough period later this month and in early March. (See chart, courtesy of Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report; he in turn gives credit to Tom DeMark, a noted technical analyst who is the founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics.)

One of the biggest objections I heard two months ago was that the chart is a shameless exercise in after-the-fact retrofitting of the recent data to some past price pattern. But that objection has lost much of its force. The chart was first publicized in late November of last year, and the correlation since then certainly appears to be just as close as it was before.

To be sure, as McClellan acknowledged: “Every pattern analog I have ever studied breaks correlation eventually, and often at the point when I am most counting on it to continue working. So there is no guarantee that the market has to continue following through with every step of the 1929 pattern. But between now and May 2014, there is plenty of reason for caution.”

Tom Demark added in interview that he first drew parallels with the 1928-1929 period well before last November. “Originally, I drew it for entertainment purposes only,” he said—but no longer: “Now it’s evolved into something more serious.”

NardDogNation
Posts: 26409
Alba Posts: 4
Joined: 5/7/2013
Member: #5555

2/12/2014  6:29 PM
GustavBahler wrote:Who knows what will happen but I can't say this is a good omen....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11

I should know, because I quoted a number of this chart’s skeptics in a column I wrote in early December. Yet the market over the last two months has continued to more or less closely follow the 1928-29 pattern outlined in that two-months-ago chart. If this correlation continues, the market faces a particularly rough period later this month and in early March. (See chart, courtesy of Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report; he in turn gives credit to Tom DeMark, a noted technical analyst who is the founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics.)

One of the biggest objections I heard two months ago was that the chart is a shameless exercise in after-the-fact retrofitting of the recent data to some past price pattern. But that objection has lost much of its force. The chart was first publicized in late November of last year, and the correlation since then certainly appears to be just as close as it was before.

To be sure, as McClellan acknowledged: “Every pattern analog I have ever studied breaks correlation eventually, and often at the point when I am most counting on it to continue working. So there is no guarantee that the market has to continue following through with every step of the 1929 pattern. But between now and May 2014, there is plenty of reason for caution.”

Tom Demark added in interview that he first drew parallels with the 1928-1929 period well before last November. “Originally, I drew it for entertainment purposes only,” he said—but no longer: “Now it’s evolved into something more serious.”

I suppose if you want to be optimistic, it is a pretty small sample size. Hopefully that means it is not as ominous as it appears. Then again, there has been little to be optimistic about when it comes to the economy.

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